When it comes to green, our leaders cannot afford to fiddle while Rhodes burns

The Conservatives are diluting their environmental pledges – but they misunderstand just how popular climate policies are, writes Andrew Grice

Voters are worried about the perceived threat of climate change (Getty)

In the absence of many dividing lines with Labour, especially on the economy, the Conservatives have seized on the Uxbridge by-election result and decided to become a paler shade of green than Keir Starmer’s party.

However, Rishi Sunak is playing with fire by diluting the government’s measures to combat climate change. This will not only harm the planet – it will also damage the Tories’ chances at next year’s general election.

Many Tories have convinced themselves the rethink will be popular. Some ministers believe ditching the green measures costing people money will help persuade the disgruntled natural Tories who stayed at home in last week’s by-elections in Selby and Ainsty and in Somerton and Frome to turn out at the general election. They calculate that Starmer’s party will not let him man-mark Sunak’s move to get rid of what David Cameron once called the “green crap”.

Some Tories are sure this would be a vote-winner in the red wall in the north and Midlands, the group which will probably decide the election. Only one problem: it’s not true. Polling by More in Common shows that 73 per cent of voters in the red wall support the net zero commitment, and scrapping it would lose more votes there than it gained.

Red-wall voters are slightly more likely than average to say the government is not doing enough on climate. In focus group discussions, they are particularly concerned about climate impacts, which translates into high support for action to mitigate them.

Red-wall voters are proud of Britain’s work in recent years to protect the environment; some 79 per cent of what More in Common calls “loyal nationals” say the country needs to build on it (something for Sunak to think about now he is being accused of ending the UK’s global leadership on the issue).

In Britain as a whole, voters are almost five times more likely to think the government is doing too little on climate change than that it is doing too much. After daily TV news pictures about the heatwave on the continent, public concern about climate and the environment has risen to its highest level in six months and is now third on people’s list of top issues, behind the cost of living and the NHS and ahead of the small boats crisis and housing.

Although more people in the Tories’ traditional blue wall in the south regard climate as a top issue than in the red wall, Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, insists it is a mistake to think “loyal nationals” are “anti-climate” just because they are socially conservative on crime and migration.

In fact, the perceived threat of climate change makes them more worried. As such, blue-wall voters are optimistic about green technology, are receptive to the idea of being “early adopters”, view “green” as a lifestyle, and have very high trust in scientists.

Tryl told me: "The idea that red-wall voters don’t support measures to reach net zero is a myth. Instead, these voters are among the most likely to take the threat of climate change seriously and to want the government to do more to tackle it.

“Politicians who threaten to water down net zero are likely to receive short shrift from the electorate. Instead, the focus needs to be on how to communicate these policies in a way that shows people the tangible benefits and helps those who are most struggling with the cost.”

So Labour should hold its nerve, and not join the Tories in a race to the bottom. Insiders say there was a panicky moment inside Labour after Uxbridge voters gave the thumbs down to London mayor Sadiq Khan’s proposed expansion of the capital’s low-emission zone. “I was worried at first, but the wobble passed and the messages from the leadership are now more reassuring,” one prominent green Labour figure told me.

Politicians in all parties should mind their language on climate. The phrase “net zero” is often misunderstood; people are sceptical about promises of hundreds of thousands of “green jobs,” while pledging a “green industrial revolution” provokes a negative reaction, according to research by the Labour-affiliated Fabian Society.

The most effective message it tested was: “We owe our children a better future but if we don’t act, they will pay the price.”

Making climate change a political football as the Tories now intend will jeopardise the long-term private investment needed for the net zero target to be met. The public, understandably wary about the costs of the transition to them, will have an excuse not to play their part in saving the planet if they think our politicians will flip-flop on the issue. Our leaders cannot afford to fiddle with party political games while Rhodes burns.