Starmer’s big Brexit ‘reset’ is really nothing of the sort

As the PM speaks in Germany in an attempt to undo some of the damage of the previous administration, Sean O’Grady weighs up the options for mending our relationship with the EU

The prime minister is hoping to renew relations with Germany (Getty)

Keir Starmer’s mission to Germany ought to be something that arouses hope and optimism about Britain’s fractured relationships with its nearest neighbours – and still by far its largest economic partner – the European Union.

No one in their right mind, let alone with any sense of history, can dispute that a treaty between the two countries, as proposed by Starmer and seemingly welcomed by his counterpart, Olaf Scholz, is “a good thing”. Great things seem to be expected of it by Starmer.

It’s part of his “reset” of European relations and, also in his words, nothing less than “a once-in-a-generation chance to deliver for working people in Britain and in Germany”. Starmer claims that the UK is about to “turn the corner” on Brexit.

But, erm.. what exactly does that mean?

It is frustratingly vague, at least so far as the economic agenda goes. The prime minister, with little apparent concrete justification, says: “Growth is the number one priority for my government ... and building relations with our partners here in Germany and across Europe is vital to achieving it."

True enough, but there’s not much in what’s been made public so far that suggests a step change in UK GDP growth is at hand, let alone anything that will fulfil the rather rash Labour manifesto pledge to “secure the highest sustained growth in the G7”.

A vague commitment to improved cooperation across science, technology, development, trade and business will no doubt assist trade and boost research, development and innovation, but it will not transform the UK’s subdued long-term economic outlook. Only a massive increase in investment can do that, and, whatever else, the new Anglo-German friendship treaty is not going to deliver anything like that.

It reminds one of those pathetic pretend “free trade agreements” that Kemi Badenoch and Penny Mordaunt used to bring proudly back from individual American states such as Texas, North Carolina and Indiana, which were full of nice ideas about twinning chambers of commerce and mutually recognising professional qualifications, but which were a pitiful substitute for the UK-US FTA that was supposed to swiftly follow Brexit and help “unleash Britain’s potential”, as Boris Johnson used to say.

The brutal truth, which no one in the conference rooms in Berlin seems prepared to be rude enough to say, is that any material improvements in economic relationships with the EU will have to be negotiated with the European Commission – and the UK, even led by an impeccable social democrat such as Starmer, will not be able to cherry-pick a new deal without giving something in return.

Even if he wanted to rejoin the EU – or its single market or customs union – he could not, sadly, just revert to the highly advantageous (to Britain) terms prevailing before Brexit. The politics of any of that are toxic – and will remain so for some time.

Starmer himself has said that the UK won’t be back in the EU during his lifetime, and the prime minister is a fairly spry and healthy bloke. We’re looking at the 2040s for that project, then. The technical review of the 2020 EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement due next year will be just that. Europhiles are bound to be disappointed.

The EU attitude is that the British are free, as the Labour manifesto proposed, voluntarily to adopt EU standards to help exporters and smooth supply chains – but that’s not a new and improved Brexit deal.

Starmer, of course, knows the realities of all this, and sometimes admits as much; yet he does persist in using words such as “reset”, “turning the corner” and “once in a generation” opportunities. It seems at odds with the political dynamics in the UK, where Labour remains wary of accusations of “Brexit betrayal” (absurd as that is in every sense) – and, more appositely, reliving the traumas of 2016-20.

Any suggestion that the UK might return to the “free movement” of labour would be distorted and abused by the right as “open borders”. Starmer can never speak of it – even innocuous ideas about young people having work and study access seem to have been canned.

And, of course, Europe has other issues such as migration and Russian aggression to deal with. Where, perhaps, Starmer will be able to turn his rhetoric into reality is by leveraging the UK’s defence capability – albeit denuded in recent decades – as a substantial bargaining chip in a more ambitious renegotiation of the Brexit deal. It’s difficult to make out the contours, but the language about “building on” the existing, 2010, Anglo-German treaty, which also centred on defence and security, does suggest that game is afoot.

Put in crude – almost literally mercenary – terms, the deal would be that the UK will help Europe defend itself provided we get some serious concessions on trade and economic relations. The mutual advantages in such deal making are clear, and twin UK treaties with Germany and France (where Starmer is next headed) would be the foundation for a new wider EU-UK TCA.

Those with longer memories will recall that this was, in fact, what Theresa May envisaged when she was prime minister and was trying to “sell” the Chequers plan both to her own party and the EU. The defence section was an integral part of her proposal, but was dumped on the usual chauvinistic Eurosceptic grounds when Johnson ousted her in 2019.

Now, at least that bit of the moribund Chequers plan is to be revived, as Starmer describes it: “At the heart of this treaty will be a new defence agreement, an agreement that builds upon our already formidable defence cooperation, but which expands that relationship to face the threats of a volatile world together.” The UK is, in effect, offering Europe a stronger and more intimate defence relationship, and an insurance policy in case America abandons Nato and goes isolationist, either under Donald Trump or some other pro-Putin populist.

Will Brussels buy such a deal? Could it even work? Could Starmer withstand the accusations that he’s about to create some polyglot European army under the control of the EU? That historic “reset” is going to be very hard work.