Unclear and present dangers: market predictions for the near future

In this period of great geopolitical uncertainty, Chris Blackhurst takes a look at what financial experts think will happen in the coming months

The only thing missing is a crystal ball: geopolitical uncertainty means different answers to the same question (PA)

This being the time of year when teachers prepare their reports and make predictions, I thought it might be worth doing the same for the markets.

We’re living in a period of great geopolitical uncertainty. Last weekend, we were treated to the spectacle of a possible coup in Russia. While that was apparently dealt with, fragility in Moscow remains. Meanwhile, the war rages in Ukraine. In Asia, China continues to be an imponderable – will it or won’t it attack Taiwan? This week, two experienced Beijing-watchers gave me different answers to the same question. One said “no”, the other said, “yes, but not immediately”.

In the US, they’re gearing up for a presidential election that promises to be bizarre, if not downright frightening – with a seemingly increasingly frail incumbent set to take on his inflamed predecessor who is fighting federal charges.