As the first move in a gradual rapprochement between Britain and the European Union, the prospective changes to the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol deserve a warm welcome, and the prime minister some congratulations.
In contrast to Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak – the most original and sincere Brexiteer of the three, ironically – does not view the EU as an enemy and isn’t inclined to insult the neighbours. He and Emmanuel Macron have a visibly warm rapport and a similar technocratic outlook, and, if personal diplomacy can help, such political friendship is no bad thing.
If things go well in his conversations over the coming days with Mr Macron, the European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, a revised set of rules will soon be agreed, and a major source of acrimony at least partially resolved. As a pragmatic, practical way to fix essentially technical and administrative problems, it sets a useful precedent for future such revisions.
With the protocol duly improved, the UK can pursue again the prize of partnership with the Horizon Europe programme, an essential framework for continuing collaborative research in British universities.
Behind that lie a series of other incremental improvements, such as on tourist travel, the free movement of artists, musicians and other specified groups, perhaps even mutually beneficial recognition of professional and product standards, and a new security dimension added to the overall EU-UK trade and cooperation agreement.
None of these, even taken together, approach the benefits lost by Brexit, but in the short term, under a government led by either of the main UK parties, they would all improve the lives of UK and EU citizens, build trust, and add some momentum to the task of creating an easier relationship.
However, even the most ambitious modifications to the protocol that now seem realistic will not be sufficient to satisfy the Democratic Unionist Party. Even if the “red and green channels” solution to irksome customs checks is adopted, as the DUP desires, it – alone among the Northern Ireland parties – is insisting on a series of seven impossible tests, the acceptance of which would effectively reopen the Brexit treaties. That is not going to happen, no matter how cross the DUP gets.
Understandably, the DUP resents having EU single-market rules imposed on Northern Ireland with no democratic say in the matter, and it doesn’t see why Northern Ireland is the only part of the UK whose affairs are subject to even marginal input from the Court of Justice of the European Union.
Without satisfaction on those fronts, the DUP says it will continue to boycott the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. The DUP is in effect holding the government of Northern Ireland, and peace on the island as a whole, hostage until the UK and EU cave in to its demands.
Sooner or later, however, the DUP will have to face the fact that the protocol is here to stay, and that its threats are not going to stop the UK and EU agreeing to changes if that is in their broader mutual interest.
That, sadly, is how the protocol came to be in the first place, because the imperative was to avoid a hard border between the two parts of the island of Ireland. If it wants to, the DUP can blame Brexit (which it campaigned for but the people of Northern Ireland rejected), or Mr Johnson; but Brexit is not about to be scrapped.
Legally, as has now been confirmed by the UK Supreme Court, there is nothing the DUP can do about an international treaty compatible with UK law, including the acts of union, and with the Good Friday Agreement.
The choice facing the DUP is to join the executive and continue to argue and work to make the protocol better from within the government of Northern Ireland; or to be ignored outside it and leave the people of Northern Ireland with no representative government at all.
Soon, in 2024, the formal “democratic consent” provisions in the protocol will become operational, and if the DUP wants its voice to be heard in that debate, then it needs to turn up to the assembly, before or after the next Stormont elections are due.
Its stubbornness may appeal to a narrow section of opinion in Northern Ireland, but it is utterly futile when set against the combined determination of the other parties in the North, the British government, the Irish government, the EU and the White House.
That said, the DUP is right to feel aggrieved about the protocol. It was carelessly negotiated and hastily rushed through by the then prime minister Mr Johnson and his chief negotiator Lord Frost to meet an artificial deadline in December 2020, and it has caused trouble ever since. It is flawed. It did create an undesirable economic border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, something Mr Johnson had previously declared he could never accept.
That sense of betrayal is felt most keenly by the unionist community in Northern Ireland and was the “original sin” that blighted the agreement from the start.
A sometimes overzealous application of rules by EU officials didn’t help. But the protocol wasn’t conjured up to punish Northern Ireland; rather it seemed the least bad way to make Brexit effective without imposing a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic – which the DUP also opposes.
The DUP should pocket Mr Sunak’s deal, rejoin the executive, and continue to lobby for the further improvements it wants, using its power base in Northern Ireland to do so with some authority. It should stop taking out its frustrations on its own people.
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