For all the hope invested in Kamala Harris, she has a lot of convincing to do

Editorial: Assuming that Harris is the nominee, these next weeks will be crucial in making (or breaking) her chances of beating Donald Trump to the White House. Any mistake or evident weakness will cost her dear

Serial smasher of glass ceilings Harris may be, but it is not at all clear from her three-and-a-half years as first reserve that she will be the one to shatter that final US glass ceiling (AP)

President Joe Biden’s belated decision to end his misguided bid for re-election has changed the 2024 race for the White House beyond all recognition.

In place of an elderly opponent whose faculties have been visibly failing, Donald Trump will now face someone considerably younger than he is.

In place of a man, the chances are that he will face a woman who now says she will do “everything in her power” to beat him in November. In place of a nominee whose party support is divided, he is likely to face a candidate buoyed by a newly energised Democratic Party; their divisions over Biden’s candidacy left behind.

Many of the calculations made by Trump and his campaign team may thus need a rapid rethink.

If his graceless response to Biden’s withdrawal is an early sign of that rethink, then he may find his wider support shrinking, even as he reinforces his ultra-loyal base. The early timing of the Republican Convention, once seen as an advantage, could now turn out to be a liability.

His resilience in the face of the failed assassination attempt will remain an asset, along with the images of all-American heroism, but the competition for public attention may start to be more even than it was.

For all the hope now invested in vice-president Kamala Harris, however, starry-eyed optimism should be avoided at all costs – whether it comes from Trump opponents in the United States who have a vote on 5 November, or from those abroad, concerned about the implications of a second Trump presidency.

Serial smasher of glass ceilings Harris may be, but it is not at all clear from her three-and-a-half years as first reserve that she will be the one to shatter that final one. If as substantial a political figure as Hillary Clinton could not do it, Harris has a lot of convincing still to do.

On the plus side, she has her youth – at 59 – relative to Trump’s grizzled 78. Being a lawyer and former attorney general could give her debating points against Trump, given his brushes with the law that continue, despite the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity.

Her background – of mixed race, with a Jamaican father and an Indian mother – could enhance her appeal to America’s younger and more ethnically diverse voters. Being a woman and a staunch supporter of abortion rights could also help her to win women’s votes, in a US election where those rights are at issue for the first time in 50 years.

As of now, though, the doubts at least balance, and risk outweighing these assets. It would be an understatement to say that she does not have a good record as a campaigner. When she contested the early Democratic primaries in 2020, she was singularly unimpressive and gaffe-prone, including in debates where a lawyer and advocate should shine.

In her time as vice-president, she has failed to emerge from the president’s shadow – was this a sign of loyalty or of weakness? And what price loyalty if it serves to prolong the campaign of a president who should not be seeking a second term?

When she was chosen by Biden as his running mate, there were accusations of tokenism from which she has never successfully escaped. And she conspicuously failed to get to grips with the one defined job she was entrusted with by Biden: migration, and the situation on the southern border.

In mitigation, it could be said that this was always an impossible task, as Biden well knew. But it counts as a failure nonetheless – as does her seeming inability to have carved out anything approaching her own platform or identity over the years.

Senior Democrats may be rushing to embrace Harris as the candidate with the best prospects of challenging Trump, and so with the best chance of uniting their fractious party. But if she is to command the credibility essential to electoral success, she needs to set out what she stands for and communicate it, clearly, consistently and without delay.

Trump is a formidable communicator, with an impassioned, even fanatical, core of supporters. She has to project something of the same self-belief. In his letter announcing the end of his campaign, Biden summarised what is, on balance, a positive domestic record in the White House. Harris could do worse than share the credit for the relatively strong state of the US economy, the jobs created and the expansion of healthcare provision.

In her first speech as the presumed nominee, she paid generous tribute to Biden, saying his record was “unmatched in modern history” and suggesting she would campaign to continue what she sees as his “legacy of accomplishment”. But she also needs to have answers to Trump on migration and his hard-nosed foreign policy, on relations with China – in the first instance – and the war in Ukraine.

A little less than a month remains until the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, which is as late in the political season as the Republican Convention was early. Assuming that Harris is the nominee, these will be crucial weeks that will make (or break) her chances of beating Donald Trump to the White House. Any mistake or evident weakness will cost her dear.

But the race has entered a new stage, and it is – by a long way – not over yet.