Biden was a drag to the Democrats, but might Kamala Harris be even worse?

The reservations about Biden’s veep run deep – and not just among Republicans, warns Jon Sopel

‘Joe Biden’s resignation letter contained praise for his veep, Kamala Harris – but there was one sentence conspicuously absent: there was no endorsement of her to be his successor. Nothing’ (AP)

If this isn’t a contradiction, the news that Joe Biden is pulling out is simultaneously shocking, but not in the least surprising. America seems to specialise in this.

But reading through his letter announcing that he is leaving November’s presidential race – a decision that had been forced on him by the money drying up, the poll numbers tanking and the questions about his health mounting – it is what you would expect: a long list of his achievements, that he couldn’t have done it without the American people and the support of those around him.

There was praise for his veep, Kamala Harris – but there was one sentence conspicuously absent. I reread the letter twice to check. There was no endorsement of her to be his successor. Nothing.

And given how much focus there would have been on this most salient point, and how many drafts the letter would have gone through before being released, it was notable. And here’s the problem.

The reservations about Kamala Harris run deep – and not just among Republicans. Very recently I was with a senior US diplomat and I asked how Kamala Harris was doing as vice-president. The response was telling: “Oh, she’s doing a little better, you know.” If the phrase damning with faint praise means anything…

Biden quickly followed up his initial letter with a statement saying he fully backs Kamala to succeed him, and that he wants her to be the Democratic Party’s nominee. I think a lot of the big guns will follow his lead.

The problem for the party at this agonising moment is there are probably better candidates – most notably the governors of California and Michigan, Gavin Newsom and Gretchen Whitmer respectively – but to get from Biden stepping down to one of those winning the nomination would probably necessitate a bloodbath, while Donald Trump sits with his feet up, watching the carnage unfold.

In Kamala Harris’s favour, she has been energetic while campaigning on abortion rights issues – a key concern in this election – and wherever a woman’s reproductive rights have been on the ballot, voters have gone for a woman’s right to choose.

But the negatives are long. One of the issues that Biden gave her to mastermind was the issue of immigration and the Southern border. It has been a disaster. The border is still one of Trump’s trump cards. She gave the impression that she didn’t really want to get mud on her high-heeled shoes by getting stuck into this.

There is a question of misogyny, too. When Hillary Clinton ran in 2016, that was undoubtedly a factor in her defeat (although she ran a lousy campaign – not to mention other issues).

But one more pressing question is the age-old one: what did she know and when? If the reason that Joe Biden is stepping aside is because of his cognitive decline, how long has he been like that? Were the Americans duped about the real state of his health? Why was she still fully backing him if she knew he wasn’t physically capable?

Republican attack ads have been prepared and are ready to go. And a taste of the style of assault was on show from Donald Trump on Saturday night. She’s nuts, he was telling his audience in Michigan. “You ever watch a laugh? She’s crazy. You can tell a lot by a laugh. She’s crazy,” he revelled in telling the audience.

And her record as a liberal Californian will bear no relation to reality – but hey, this is US politics. Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story. It will be ugly.

That’s the bad news. There is an opportunity in who she picks as her running mate – if, of course, she secures the nomination. What you want ideally from a running mate is someone who reaches a demographic you don’t – the balancing of the ticket.

Think JFK – a northeastern, liberal, elite, wealthy Catholic picking Lyndon B Johnson – a Texan redneck from the South with whom he had nothing in common.

Donald Trump hasn’t done that this time around. When he chose the former Indiana governor, Mike Pence, in 2016, it was smart. Here was a god-fearing evangelical who put faith above politics, giving reassurance to the evangelicals of America that it was safe to vote Trump.

But in 2024, Trump has gone for the Maga mini-me in the shape of JD Vance, who is arguably more “out there” on economic populism, isolationism, the border and anti-abortion policies than Trump himself.

In other words, the centre ground of US politics is sitting vacant. Make the right choice of running mate, get some energy into the campaign, suck the oxygen away from Trump and you never know. Because then, all of a sudden, the focus will switch to age – and Trump will be the old man in the race. In fact, the oldest person in US history to become president.

November is still a long way away.