Budget 2024 latest: Huge boost for Reeves as IMF growth forecast rises after inflation battle ‘largely won’
Chancellor responds to fresh prediction for the economy ahead of 30 October statement
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Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget since coming into power on 30 October, leading one of the most anticipated fiscal events in over two decades.
Ahead of her announcement, the chancellor has welcomed an upgrade to the UK’s economic forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The financial agency even said the country’s battle against inflation has “largely been won.”
The country’s GDP is now predicted to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2024 – a major uplift from the 0.7 per cent forecast in July.
Ms Reeves said the new forecast was “welcome” but that there is “more work to do.” She added: “The Budget next week will be about fixing the foundations to deliver change, so we can protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain.”
New figures from the ONS also show that government borrowing rose to £16.6 billion last month marking the third highest September borrowing since records began, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This has brought borrowing in the year to date to £79.6 billion – £6.7 billion more than forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility. The ONS says public sector pay rises contributed to the unexpected rise.
We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.
Fact check: Would raising employer national insurance be a ‘tax on working people’?
Speculation has mounted in the subsequent months, with an increase in employer NICs now looking likely. The measure has caused strong political debate, focused on whether it would break Labour’s manifesto pledge to not raise taxes on “working people.”
Ministers and Treasury officials have indicated the government’s position is that the measure would not break their manifesto pledge. Labour has not confirmed that an employer NIC hike will be included in the Budget, but has refused to rule the measure out.
Meanwhile, Institute for Fiscal Studies director Paul Johnson has argued it would be a “straightforward breach.”
The tax expert adds that in the extreme case that an increase of one pence per pound in employer NICs was passed on to employees in the form of lower wages, the measure would only net £4.5 billion a year. He adds that the end figure would probably be a little higher than this, but much less than a previous HMRC estimate of £8.5 billion.
Martin Lewis sends warning over Buy Now Pay Later crackdown
Martin Lewis has issued a warning over a new crackdown on buy now, pay later products.
The money expert has cautioned consumers it is a case of buy now, get protected later.
Ministers have announced that millions of shoppers are to be protected by new rules for BNPL, as they are known.
Mr Lewis welcomed the change saying: "Buy Now, Pay Later is now ubiquitous at online checkouts, so the fact it’s never been regulated is a travesty I and others have long campaigned on.
“The last chancellor promised to regulate, then the tumbleweed rolled as he went silent, so I am delighted the new government has quickly restarted the process.”
Millionaires urge Reeves to raise £14bn from capital gains tax changes at Budget
Rachel Reeves should increase capital gains tax (CGT) at Labour’s upcoming Budget, a group of millionaire business owners have urged, estimating the measure would raise £14bn a year.
In a report by the IPPR think-tank, analysts have consulted with wealthy entrepreneurs who say higher CGT would not have stopped them from making investments in the UK.
The group has called for CGT to be aligned with income tax, arguing that fears such a move would lead wealthy individuals to leave the country in response are unfounded. Recent HMRC analysis found that a 10 per cent increase to the measure would actually cost the exchequer £2bn after behavioural impacts.
Budget 2024: Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Inheritance tax set to rise – here’s what it means for you
Only around 4 per cent of families have to pay ‘death tax’ under current legislation
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