To the rest of the world, Britain has vanished – or become completely irrelevant

The Conservative leadership contest may be attracting praise for its diversity, but it gives the impression of mayhem abroad, writes Mary Dejevsky

The best policy for our neighbours and allies is probably to write off the UK until September (EPA)

It seems an age ago now, but when Boris Johnson announced his departure just a week ago, surprise in the UK was distinctly muted. It seemed less a question of if, than how and when. Johnson may have survived a vote of confidence from Conservative MPs only a month before, but the scandals kept coming, and when ministers started defecting, it was over within hours. “When the herd moves,” as Johnson said in his statement, “it moves.”

That is not, for the most part, how it looked from abroad. From the European Union and Ukraine to southeast Asia and the United States, the response was sheer and undiluted bewilderment. It was a bewilderment akin to that which followed the UK’s vote to leave the EU. How on earth did that come about? What are these Brits doing to themselves – again?

It is true that attention abroad has been diverted by Ukraine, higher energy prices, the resurgence of Covid and inflation. It is also true that the UK’s vastly diminished attention to the EU since Brexit – as seen in politics and the media – is thoroughly reciprocated. The UK and its weird ways have fallen far down the pecking order of subjects commanding EU interest.

Which is not to say that in some foreign capitals (OK, quite a few European capitals), there may not have been the occasional cheer, the occasional glass of champagne, even. But barely 10 days had elapsed since Boris Johnson had been taking part in international gatherings: from the commonwealth in Rwanda, the G7 in Bavaria, Nato in Madrid. Each had seen him hobnobbing cheerfully and appearing to mend fences with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, and trying – with some success – to stiffen European spines over maintaining a hard line on Russia and continuing military support for Ukraine.

But it seems as though the European contingent decided not to make more specific pledges to Ukraine. The tough language of the G7‘s statement, “to provide financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support and stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes”, offered less detail about western commitments than from the UK. It might have been angling for and is more interested in diplomatic ways forward than the UK regards as desirable. There is also the harsh truth that some of the financing Ukraine was appealing for from the US and the EU has since stalled on questions about corruption.

Despite all that, Boris Johnson was making his presence felt on the world stage. He clearly enjoyed such occasions and it gave him a chance both to represent the UK at these top tables and to differentiate “Global Britain” from the Europe-centric concerns of the EU.

Then, suddenly, it was all over. Boris Johnson is now the lamest of lame ducks, who can do no more than keep a minimal show on the road through the summer. As for what passes for the government, it comprises half of novices and half of those who remained at their posts for the sake of duty. And it gets worse – a lot worse. This is not just because there is a vacuum where the government should be, but because the entire cabinet are now very publicly at each other’s throats in the race to be the next prime minister.

The contest itself may be attracting praise at Westminster for the political, ethnic and gender diversity of the contenders. But what impression does this mayhem create abroad? There is a war in Europe, a cost of living crisis, a revolution in Sri Lanka (that could spread), and potential food shortages as a result of Ukraine’s inability to ship out its grain. But a country that fancies itself, and in some respects really is, a major player, has with minimal notice simply left the field.

In some ways, the best policy for our neighbours and allies is probably to write off the UK at least until 5 September, when the new prime minister is set to be declared, and then give the new government a little while to bed in. If the new prime minister decides to call an election in pursuit of a national mandate, rather than a party one, the turmoil could go on. At least there are still some countries where the whole of August is regarded as a work-free zone.

For some idea of how the UK must look from outside, imagine if Macron were somehow toppled from the presidency, rather than just having to accommodate himself to life without a parliamentary majority. Or if Angela Merkel had been removed by a cabal of her own MPs; even when her various coalitions came near to collapse, she still had the power, as leader of the largest party in the Bundestag, to knit them back together. The UK looks more like an old-style (pre-Berlusconi, pre-Draghi) Italy, except that Italy was used to making do without a government. The UK – for all its boasting about the Rolls Royce machine of a non-political civil service – is not.

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The effective absence of the UK from international decision-making leaves open many questions about what other countries might cook up in the meantime. With Germans worried about an impending energy shortage and France offering Ukraine more verbal than military support, it is possible that the west’s hard line against Russia could start to soften. Ukraine is certainly concerned about Johnson’s departure, given his very personal support for President Zelensky. A mooted future as a “UK special envoy” is hardly the same thing.

On the other hand, however, the implications might not be completely negative. There are some questions – including the continuing dispute about the Northern Ireland protocol – that could benefit from, well, doing nothing. Something similar might apply to relations with the European Union more broadly. Boris Johnson had started a rapprochement with Macron, but the Brexit-inspired  tensions between London and Brussels persist.

Whoever becomes the UK’s next head of government will not be the prime minister who “got Brexit done”; he or she will not be the prime minister who played elaborate word games over Northern Ireland. He or she will probably not be best buddies with Zelensky, and doesn’t have to be the butt of Kremlin jokes. There can be pluses, as well as minuses, to a pause, followed by something like a fresh start.