Predicting the unpredictable: how scientists plan for earthquakes

The disaster in Turkey and Syria last week highlights dangerous ‘seismic gaps’ around the world, says Carolyn Y. Johnson

Destroyed buildings in Antakya, southeastern Turkey, on Thursday (AP)

When Ezgi Karasozen received an email alert about a massive earthquake in southeastern Turkey, she burst into tears. Karasozen is an earthquake geologist who lives in Colorado but she grew up in the Turkish capital of Ankara, and she’s studied the earthquakes in her home country in detail. She instantly knew that a 7.8 magnitude quake meant devastation.

Most seismologists have a shortlist of places in the world that they worry about – hotspots where any news of a major temblor is a pit-of-the-stomach moment. These concerns are especially true in so-called seismic gaps, segments of known fault zones that haven’t ruptured in an unusually long time – long enough that people may have let their guard down.

The East Anatolian fault that ruptured this week in Turkey, for example, was well known to scientists and government officials, but it had not caused a catastrophic earthquake in at least the last century. Turkey has implemented building codes to protect against earthquake risks, but last week’s tragedy highlights a long-standing concern among scientists that it isn’t being enforced rigorously enough.