Theresa May is right about the next general election

This may sound like heresy, but John Rentoul is prepared to back her prediction over Sir John Curtice’s

Theresa May is right about the next general election (PA)

I am not sure Theresa May is the best person to look to as a predictor of election results, but I am still prepared to back her against Professor Sir John Curtice. This may sound like heresy, as Curtice is the great guru of election studies. But when he says, “no government that has presided over a fiscal or financial crisis has eventually survived,” I am reminded of an xkcd cartoon by the equally mighty Randall Munroe.

It starts in the US in 1788, with a stick person declaring: “No one has ever been elected president before.” It is headed, “The problem with statements like…” and gives examples of statements similar to Curtice’s “fiscal crisis” one, which were disproved at the next presidential election. “As goes Mississippi so goes the nation.” Until 1848. “No one can become president without getting married.” Until Buchanan. “No president’s been re-elected with double-digit unemployment.” Until FDR.

This last may be relevant to the case of the next British election. (More relevant, certainly, than “No Democrat incumbent without combat experience has beaten someone whose first name is worth more in Scrabble”, which was true until Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole.) It reminds us that economics does not always decide politics – at least, not in predictable ways.