Will Sunak risk a snap summer election if flights take off for Rwanda in July?

For the PM, delivering on a few flights as part of his flagship pledge on immigration might be the ‘sweet spot’ for an election before the inevitable rise in dangerous small boat crossings over the summer, writes Andrew Grice

Rishi Sunak’s closest allies appear to be divided over a summer contest (Toby Melville)

Now the Safety of Rwanda Bill has finally cleared its parliamentary hurdles, there is rising speculation Rishi Sunak will try to reap the benefit of the first flights to Kigali by calling a summer general election.

For many Conservative MPs, the idea looks completely potty, given the party trails Labour by 20 points in the opinion polls. But on closer inspection, there are several reasons why the prime minister will at least consider a June or July election.

Some ministers privately hope the first flights might take off in about six weeks rather than the 10 to 12-week timeframe Sunak set out yesterday. After massively overpromising in his pledge to “stop the boats” – and confronted by yet another tragedy today, when five migrants (including a child) died in the Channel – Sunak might have finally learned the art of underpromising and overdelivering.