Will Sunak risk a snap summer election if flights take off for Rwanda in July?

For the PM, delivering on a few flights as part of his flagship pledge on immigration might be the ‘sweet spot’ for an election before the inevitable rise in dangerous small boat crossings over the summer, writes Andrew Grice

Rishi Sunak’s closest allies appear to be divided over a summer contest (Toby Melville)

Now the Safety of Rwanda Bill has finally cleared its parliamentary hurdles, there is rising speculation Rishi Sunak will try to reap the benefit of the first flights to Kigali by calling a summer general election.

For many Conservative MPs, the idea looks completely potty, given the party trails Labour by 20 points in the opinion polls. But on closer inspection, there are several reasons why the prime minister will at least consider a June or July election.

Some ministers privately hope the first flights might take off in about six weeks rather than the 10 to 12-week timeframe Sunak set out yesterday. After massively overpromising in his pledge to “stop the boats” – and confronted by yet another tragedy today, when five migrants (including a child) died in the Channel – Sunak might have finally learned the art of underpromising and overdelivering.

A few flights taking off might be the “sweet spot” for an election before an inevitable rise in small boat crossings over the summer period. The number of migrants who have arrived this year is up by 24 per cent on the same period last year. Waiting until the autumn might reinforce the public’s view that the Rwanda scheme is not the deterrent Sunak is banking on. Even with flights taking off, it might be judged a failure.

True, it would be counterintuitive to call a general election immediately after suffering bad results in the 2 May local elections in England. One way around that would be for Sunak to announce a June or July election before the local contests. Crucially, that would prevent right-wing Tories demanding a vote of confidence in him as party leader after the council elections, a move that would need the backing of 52 Tory MPs.

If deportations to Rwanda were blocked by the European Court of Human Rights, the Tory manifesto could include a pledge to leave the convention or hold a referendum on withdrawal. That might put Labour on the defensive and allow the Tories to make “Europe” an election issue. Although most voters have had more than enough of the Brexit debate, they do care about illegal migration.

Sunak’s closest allies appear to be divided over a summer contest. Oliver Dowden, the deputy prime minister, is said to have raised the idea without formally proposing it.

Although Sunak would never admit it, another reason for a snap election would be fears that his party is so ungovernable that it would be hard to hold on until the autumn. An early election tied to the Rwanda scheme might limit the momentum of Reform UK, and the media coverage if Nigel Farage returned to the front line.

Some Tories are convinced that things can only get worse by the autumn. If Sunak can’t win the election—and he probably can’t – then his task is to limit the damage, so the Tories have a chance of ousting Labour after one five-year term. If Sunak stays put until the autumn, Labour would inevitably accuse him of clinging to power by his fingertips. Such a perception damaged John Major in the 1997 election. As one veteran Tory MP told me: “For every week we hung on, another group of seats was lost.”

Despite all that, Sunak probably has an October or November election in mind at present. There are several advantages. It would allow him more scope to campaign on the economy – a bigger priority for voters than the small boats. Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, wants to squeeze in another autumn statement, including a further cut in national insurance contributions and possibly goodies such as a reduction in stamp duty for home buyers.

Ministers believe figures on NHS waiting lists and legal migration will be heading in the right direction by the autumn. Might the public notice and give Sunak an ounce of credit?

Then there is the Micawber factor: all prime ministers facing defeat hope that “something will turn up.” Perhaps Labour will be hit by a damaging internal row, or Keir Starmer will make a mistake voters notice after tuning into politics. There is also the legacy factor: an autumn election would give Sunak more time to do things – and he would clock up two years in Downing Street. Finally, most Tory MPs favour an autumn election – though they could not stop Sunak opting for a summer one.

For now, I suspect the balance remains in favour of October or November. But the passage of the Rwanda legislation has titled the see-saw a little, and actual – rather than mythological – flights to Kigali might just tip it the other way.