Nobody watches live telly any more! But what does that mean for the licence fee?

I confess: I am one of the minority in the ‘middle-aged’ demographic who has joined the big switch-off, writes James Moore. This is why...

Viewers still watch big events like the Olympics but regular TV broadcasts are fading in importance (Reuters)

When does linear TV end? The latest figures from Ofcom show what the media watchdog calls a “stark generational divide” in which 16- to 24-year-olds watch just 20 minutes of “live telly” daily.

While radio listening has hit a 20-year high, driven by “thriving” commercial stations, trad TV is in a trough and sinking further into it. The regulator said its weekly reach fell “by a record amount” over the last 12 months, the second year of record decline.

Less than half (48 per cent) of 16- to 24-year-olds tuned in during an average week, a sharp decline from the 76 per cent recorded in 2018. By contrast, they spent three times as long each day (1 hour 33 minutes) watching video-sharing platforms such as TikTok and YouTube. Children aged four to 15 are turning off trad TV at a similar rate, with just 55 per cent watching broadcasts each week, down from 81 per cent in 2018.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, middle-aged (45- to 54-year-old) viewers are proving slower to kick the TV habit. But the decline is under way and it is starting to speed up, with the numbers tuning in falling from 89 per cent to 84 per cent. Only the over 65s remain reliably loyal, with 95 per still sticking with trad TV.

I confess: I am one of the minority in the “middle-aged” demographic who has joined the big switch-off. With the exception of major sporting events such as the Euros or the Olympics, it is more than 10 years since I last tuned into a linear broadcast (and that was the first season of ITV’s compelling crime drama Broadchurch, which aired back in 2013).

There are more like me. It isn’t just Gen Z and Alpha who are used to swiping and streaming, as opposed to flipping through broadcast TV channels, although the growth in subscription video-on-demand services slowed somewhat. It grew by 6 per cent to 38 minutes, with Netflix still the king of the streamers (21 minutes per person, per day).

Where it gets interesting is what Ofcom concluded from the data it has collected. “While live TV may not have the universal pull it once did, its role in capturing those big moments that bring the nation together remains vital,” said Ian Macrae, Ofcom’s director of market intelligence.

Is it vital, though? Really?

Those “big events” are, by their nature, far from everyday occurrences. Among those Ofcom lists are the New Year’s Eve fireworks (12.1 million viewers annually), the coronation of the King and Queen Camilla (a one-off, 12 million viewers) and the Eurovision Song Contest (10.1 million viewers annually).

The most-watched event so far in 2024 has been the Uefa Euro 2024 men’s final between England and Spain, with the BBC and ITV coverage together averaging 15.1 million viewers on the day. That tournament is every four years, ditto the World Cup. And of course, there are the four-yearly Olympic and Paralympic Games, which reliably draw viewers.

However, even those events are increasingly streamed. The BBC has less of the Olympics this year than it had previously. Fans of the more obscure events, particularly those in which GB has no presence, have had to head to Discovery or Eurosport for their thrills. To my mind, the coverage isn’t as good as Auntie’s. But the sport is. Three-on-three basketball, in particular, is a blast.

All this being the case, it is fair to wonder for how long linear TV can realistically last as it becomes progressively less relevant and more people break the habit. Implying that it is justified by big set-piece events that “bring the nation together” is not a particularly strong argument.

The switch-off Ofcom is finding will inevitably have implications for the industry’s structure and the way TV is funded, which means the BBC. If iPlayer usurps its broadcast schedules and it becomes just another streamer, is it tenable to compel people to buy a TV licence if they don’t want it? How is that justified?

My aim here is not to bash the BBC. There are plenty of people who are more than willing to do that. However, the corporation simply cannot afford to ignore Ofcom’s figures. Viewers’ habits are changing radically and that has to be addressed.

Under the current government, the BBC probably has some breathing room to formulate a solution. It would be wise to make use of it. Ofcom’s figures – and the accelerating trends they show – simply cannot be ignored.