Biden and Harris should make way for Democrats who can actually beat Trump

It is time for the president and vice-president to step aside, writes Eric Lewis. Democracy is at stake in 2024 – and we cannot afford to take risks

Biden is perceived to lack the stamina for a race against a ruthless bully (Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.)

In this complex and difficult time, there is one proposition that is inarguable: Donald Trump cannot be elected president of the United States without endangering American democracy, the rule of law, nuclear security and countless other requisites of a stable and secure world.

No risk should be taken which might materially increase the likelihood that Trump and his cronies will be settling scores at home and abroad in January 2025. So, the polling data released on Sunday by the New York Times and Siena College, showing Trump ahead in five of six swing states, cannot be ignored. Nor can the indications of significant defections in the Democratic base of Black, and especially Hispanic, voters.

To be sure, the election is a year out. Will experts tell you that such polling data is not reliable and a mere indicator of certain problems? Yes, and they may well be right. Will pundits forecast that when the real choice between the competent but frail 81-year-old Biden and the ranting, disordered 78-year-old Trump is put to American voters next year, the “too old” issue will fade? Yes, and they also may well be right. Will the likely slam-dunk felony convictions on election tampering, insurrection and (most slam-dunkingly of all) on classified documents change people’s views when they confront having a felon in the White House? Again, if any of those cases get to trial before the election, this may well have a major impact on voting.

The question we must ask, however, is not what is likely to happen, but how much risk should we be willing to take in the face of uncertainty.

Biden in most ways has been an excellent president. He has largely recreated a post-war international order that Trump was believed to have destroyed beyond repair. Nato has expanded. Ukraine has fought off an evil aggressor whose triumph was believed to be secured in a matter of days, and while the war has been awful, Ukraine still stands tall after more than a year and a half of bloody conflict.

The Hamas massacre chills the blood; the Israeli response inspires little confidence that it is taking out Hamas surgically and without disproportionate slaughter of innocent civilians. Biden is trying to thread this tortuous needle. How would a President Trump handle these crises?

Domestically, the economy is humming. Wages are rising and the four-decade-long transfer of wealth from capital to labour is finally starting to ebb. Biden intervened in the automobile strike on the side of labour and the strike was settled. He is a bulwark in protecting women’s reproductive health in the face of the Trump Supreme Court’s sudden discovery that there is no right to privacy (but a potentially unlimited right to have guns). Biden has compassion for people’s suffering. Trump had and has none other than his own self-pity.

So what is the problem? The Biden administration has not been great at messaging his successes or drowning out the right-wing misinformation machine. Bidenomics is a communications dud. Giving money to Ukraine is not a voting issue. Trying to support Israel while tempering its behavior will gain Biden no support from any quarter. Inflation has gone way down but the message of high prices and high interest rates has taken hold, and “good news” numbers may have limited impact in this poisonous political climate.

When people look at Vice-President Harris as a potential successor, it only reinforces the age concerns. Why are her numbers even lower than Biden’s? How can we even tell if a vice-president is doing a good job? We can speculate all we like, whether it relates to her being a woman or of colour, but it doesn’t matter. There is a real risk that she will be a further drag to a ticket that is already facing headwinds (even irrational headwinds).

Biden was nominated in 2020 for a variety of reasons, but one key reason was that he was viewed as the only candidate who could unite the disparate interests within the Democratic Party and defeat a sitting president. Congressman Clyburn mobilised Black support. Labour knew they had a long-time supporter. People had had enough of Covid and Trump drama. Biden could keep the coalition together without foundering on identity politics or other hot button social wedge issues.

Times change. Biden is perceived to lack the stamina for a race against a ruthless bully. Harris, it is believed, cannot win on her own. Nor can she be seen to be pushed off the ticket. But the risk of a rerun of the 2020 election with a different outcome cannot be taken for granted – and it is an existential risk.

Biden and Harris, for the good of the country, should stand down in favour of a ticket that has the vigour, the diversity and the political savvy to win. In 2024, other Democrats have a better chance if Biden and Harris step down in favour of other candidates and the Democrats organise around such a ticket.

Unlike last time, the Democrats have a much more experienced and capable bench. There are a dozen Democratic politicians from around the country and the party who could be a convincing presidential candidate or vice-presidential candidate, and could present to the country an upbeat, progressive, energetic and sane vision that could continue the centre-left pragmatism that the Biden-Harris administration so ably began.

Andy Beshear (re-elected Tuesday in Kentucky), Cory Booker (New Jersey), Amy Klobuchar (Minnesota) and Gavin Newsom (California), to name just a few; any of these would save the country from potential disaster and avoid the risks of giving the country a ticket that it has shown it does not want next year. Time is short. Ideally, the party would unite around a unity ticket rather than have a contested primary.

Perhaps it is naive to hope so. But in trying to assess risk, it is becoming clear that there are fresh, qualified faces that would be more appealing to the country than a 2020 rerun. Mr President, Madame Vice-President – do the right thing.