The extinction of the Tory party is no longer an impossibility

The Redfield and Wilton poll for The Independent shows the most successful political party in British history faces an existential crisis

On the face of it, the Redfield and Wilton poll suggests that both Sir Keir Starmer and Nigel Farage are on course for a date with destiny.

Voters think Sir Keir is going to be prime minister for a long time.

And they believe Mr Farage could well end up being the man who leads the official opposition to Sir Keir.

Few would question that an election victory is all but nailed on for Labour. The other part is not quite as straightforward.

There are at least two notable practical obstacles to Farage becoming Tory leader: he is currently the leader of a rival party and therefore unable to stand and has yet to become an MP.

However, he has talked publicly in recent days of the possibility of “taking over” the party he left more than 30 years ago to form UKIP, the predecessor of Reform.

Alternatively, his Reform Party could simply replace the Tories lock, stock and barrel.

The end of the most successful British political party in the last century is hard to contemplate.

But many voters – including Conservatives – see it as a real possibility.

And while the likelihood of Farage becoming Conservative leader seems remote – for now at least – politics is in such a state of flux that further dramatic changes cannot be ruled out.

Redfield and Wilton’s new poll suggests voters believe Nigel Farage could be the man who leads the opposition to a Labour government (Getty)

While key aspects of the poll underline the public appeal of the Reform leader, it also discloses mixed feelings about the wider implications for the nation.

One in three (33 per cent) said if he becomes an MP it would be “bad for Britain”; 28 per cent said it would be “good for Britain”. A total of 38 per cent said having Farage in the Commons would be “bad for the UK’s image abroad”; 24 per cent said it would be “good for the UK’s image abroad”. Conversely, 37 per cent said Farage’s presence on the Commons benches would be “good for political debate in the UK”; 29 per cent disagreed.

But the public is in little doubt as to the likely outcome of the election. Nearly two in three (62 per cent) said it will result in Starmer becoming prime minister, more than three times greater than the 19 per cent who think Rishi Sunak will cling on to high office.

Philip van Sheltinga of Redfield and Wilton told The Independent: ‘Typically, an election is about who is going to form the next government. With the way things are looking now, this one is going to be about who will be the opposition.

“Given the Conservatives’ record and the state of the country, many voters are now even asking whether they deserve to be the second party of the United Kingdom.”