Keir Starmer heading for 10 years in power, new poll says

Exclusive: Redfield and Wilton poll for The Independent also finds that Tory supporters want Nigel Farage to suceed Rishi Sunak as party leader

Sir Keir Starmer is set to be prime minister for a decade, Tory supporters want Nigel Farage to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader, and many in the Conservative Party fear that it faces extinction.

These are among the shock findings of an exclusive poll conducted for The Independent by Redfield and Wilton.

It shows that 45 per cent of all voters believe Labour will win not just this election but the next one, too. With a parliamentary term lasting up to five years, that could see Sir Keir retaining the Downing Street keys until around 2034.

Only 19 per cent of the public do not expect Labour to record two successive victories.

The poll makes depressing reading for Mr Sunak – but indicates that the rise of Mr Farage, now bidding to win his first Commons seat, also has serious implications for Labour.

He is the clear choice of the public – and, crucially, of Conservative supporters – to be the next Tory leader, if, as expected, the party loses on 4 July and Mr Sunak resigns.

Asked to choose a successor from a list comprising the six current Tory leadership favourites and the Reform Party leader, Mr Farage wins across both groups of voters. Only Commons leader Penny Mordaunt runs him close.

Among the electorate as a whole, 19 per cent want Mr Farage to be the next Conservative leader; he is followed by Ms Mordaunt on 15 per cent. James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, Priti Patel and Robert Jenrick all failed to poll higher than 6 per cent.

Mr Farage is even further ahead with those who voted Conservative in 2019. A total of 22 per cent of this group want him to be the next leader of the party, with Ms Mordaunt on 16 per cent and the rest way behind.

Nigel Farage has caused a stir by entering the general election campaign (PA Wire)

A significant chunk of the Conservative faithful appear to think their party is doomed. One in three (32 per cent) of those who voted for it in the last election think it will cease to exist in its present form within 10 years.

Nearly half (46 per cent) of this group are more optimistic and think it will recover.

The wider public are more sceptical of the Conservative Party’s long-term prospects. A total of 37 per cent who took part in the survey believe it will survive more or less as it is today; 35 per cent said it will not.

Equally alarming for Mr Sunak is that, assuming Sir Keir wins power, 42 per cent of 2019 Tory voters want Mr Farage’s Reform Party to replace the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour. A total of 31 per cent of these voters want the Tories to remain the main opposition to Labour.

Among the whole electorate, 37 per cent want the Reform Party to replace the Tories as the main counter to Labour; 40 per cent do not favour this scenario.

Despite the widespread view that Sir Keir is on course for victory, it seems he will be given little personal credit for it.

Nearly half (49 per cent) of all voters said a Labour triumph would be the result of “Tory failures”; 18 per cent said “Labour policies” should be credited; and just one in seven (14 per cent) said it would be the fruit of Sir Keir’s leadership.

Moreover, the poll indicates that Labour could also be vulnerable to the potential rise of Mr Farage.

In findings that might surprise and worry senior Labour figures, a total of 39 per cent of the group of Labour supporters said Mr Farage’s immigration stance is “generally right”, while 40 per cent said it is “generally wrong”.

Nearly half of voters said a Labour triumph would be the result of Tory failures rather than Keir Starmer’s policies (PA Wire)

Nearly six in 10 (59 per cent) of 2019 Labour voters said they agree with Mr Farage’s controversial claim that “a growing number of young British Muslims do not subscribe to British values”. Only 12 per cent claimed to disagree.

A total of 54 per cent of these Labour voters endorsed Mr Farage’s equally provocative statement that “there are streets in Britain where no one speaks English”. One in three (32 per cent) of this group disagreed.

Among the broader population, Mr Farage’s views on these topics command even greater support, according to the poll.

When Mr Sunak, Sir Keir and Mr Farage were pitched against each other in a three-way popularity contest covering personal and political qualities, Sir Keir won hands down, coming first in 13 of 14 categories, from the NHS and economy to charisma.

The Labour leader’s sole defeat was by Mr Farage in the “stop the boats” category. Mr Sunak did not win a single category – and was beaten by Mr Farage on nine counts, including “stands up for the little guy”; “courageous”, and “would win TV debate”.

Redfield and Wilton interviewed 2,000 adults online on 5 and 6 June.

Here is a breakdown of the statistics:

Highlights of Redfield and Wilton poll for The Independent:

(All figures in percentages)

Is Labour likely to win next two elections? (All voters)

Yes: 45

No: 19

Neither/don’t know: 36

If Labour wins on 4 July, what will be the main reason? (All voters)

Tory failures: 49

Labour policies: 18

Starmer leadership: 14

Other/don’t know: 19

Will the Conservative Party exist in its current form in 10 years? (All voters, followed by 2019 Conservative voters)

Yes: 37, 46

No: 35, 32

Don’t know: 28, 22

Who should be the next Tory leader? (All voters, 2019 Conservative voters)

Nigel Farage: 19, 22

Penny Mordaunt: 15, 16

James Cleverly: 6, 6

Kemi Badenoch: 5, 7

Suella Braverman: 4, 6

Priti Patel: 2, 4

Robert Jenrick: 1, 1

Other/don’t know: 48, 38

Should the Reform Party replace the Conservatives as the main opposition to Labour? (All voters, 2019 Conservative voters)

Yes: 37, 42

No: 30, 31

Neither/don’t know: 33, 27

Is Farage right or wrong on immigration? (All voters, followed by 2019 Labour voters)

Generally right: 40, 39

Generally wrong: 30, 40

Don’t know: 30, 21

Do you agree/disagree with the statement: ‘A growing number of young British Muslims no longer subscribe to British values’? (all voters, 2019 Labour voters)

Agree: 63, 59

Disagree: 10, 12

Neither/don’t know: 27, 29

Is the following statement true or false: ‘There are some streets in Britain where no English is spoken’? (All voters, 2019 Labour voters)

True: 59, 54

False: 27, 32

Don’t know: 14, 14

(The final two questions relate to comments made this week by Nigel Farage)