Russia may be doing the west’s work for it in cutting gas to Bulgaria and Poland

Editorial: It makes the meandering internal political debate in western democracies about how and when to wean themselves off Russian natural resources null and void

Short, medium and long-term solutions have to be implemented immediately (Reuters)

Such is the state of mind of Russia’s leadership that it is prepared to cut off a significant source of revenues for its own war machine in a fit of pique.

Misplaced national pride in the currency dictated a counterproductive move to demand payment for natural gas in roubles rather than, say, euros, dollars or indeed Polish zloty and Bulgarian lev. It seemed pointless anyway because the Russians could sell any foreign currency and buy roubles themselves, and thus prop up their ailing currency.

However, they have cut the supply of gas to Poland and Bulgaria, as threatened. It will push the cost of gas higher, and cause some disruption in the countries concerned; but – given a choice between Russian domination and higher gas bills – the governments in Warsaw and Sofia have no option but to put their freedoms first.

With their usual poor sense of timing, the Russians decided to stop the gas exports to their neighbours just when the weather is getting a little warmer. In any case, they understand well in Bulgaria and Poland that alternatives can be found for Russian gas; but not for their national independence. What has happened to the people of Ukraine is reason enough for them to resist any Russian hold over their economies.

Indeed, Russia may be doing the west’s work for it in cutting the supply so suddenly. It makes the meandering internal political debate in western democracies about how and when to wean themselves off Russian natural resources null and void. Short, medium and long-term solutions have to be implemented immediately.

It is striking, however, that the Russians picked on Poland and Bulgaria rather than cancelling contracts with their much more important, and lucrative, German customers. It suggests that the Russian treasury does still need the money, irrespective of any particular currency, and that the sanctions are beginning to bite.

It seems that the Russians are obliged out of economic necessity to help keep German homes warm and German armaments factories running – even when the German government is sending a consignment of Panzer tanks to Ukraine, with such unfortunate historical echoes. It is a move that would have been unthinkable even a few weeks ago, and yet a left-of-centre German coalition government supported by pacifistic Greens is doing precisely that.

That crucial supply of heavy aggressive weaponry from Germany to Ukraine – and the seemingly imminent accession of Sweden and Finland to Nato – is further proof of the failure of Vladimir Putin’s ill-starred “special military operation”. It shows that Nato now wants to win the war, not merely help the Ukrainians to lose it more slowly. Victory can be glimpsed.

President Putin’s troops have disgraced themselves, his generals have been shown up to be incompetent, their equipment faulty and poorly designed, their tactics misguided and their ships eminently sinkable. The only weaponry the Russians possess with much ability to frighten the outside world is the giant nuclear arsenal – and they are not above hinting at its first deployment, including video of new nuclear missiles being tested.

Yet, day by day Nato and Ukrainians are calling the Russian bluff, with careful incremental changes in policy. From the early dispatch of non-lethal aid – such as helmets, to shipments of hand-held, anti-tank bazookas, through to the spare Polish MiG jet fighters, state-of-the-art air defence systems and those German tanks – Nato is facing up to the fact that, whether it likes it or not, the security of the west is intimately linked to the independence of Ukraine. The Ukrainians are even managing to make a few rogue attacks on Russian soil, blowing up oil depots and the like. This wasn’t in President Putin’s script.

In the first hours after the invasion almost two months ago, there was a sense that the mighty Red Army would rush down to Kyiv and take much of the west and the south of the country before the Ukrainians could mount any kind of defence, and that even if they could it would prove futile. Such assumptions about the likely rapid course of the war were shared in Washington and Brussels as well as Moscow. Not so in Kyiv, of course, and not by Volodymyr Zelensky and his citizen army.

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As the weeks have dragged on and the war crimes intensified, it has become evident not only that the barbaric Russian invasion must be stopped on moral grounds, but that it can be stopped and reversed. It is now seen as essential to defeat the Russians and push them out of Ukraine, or at least back to the 2014 line of control. The threat to the independence of neighbouring nations such as Finland and Moldova is real – and casually hinted at by Kremlin officials.

Every state in Europe is asking “who’s next?” The language of western leaders is becoming more assertive. As foreign secretary Liz Truss says: “If Putin succeeds there will be untold further misery across Europe and terrible consequences across the globe. We would never feel safe again … Heavy weapons, tanks, aeroplanes – digging deep into our inventories, ramping up production. We need to do all of this.”

Nato will remain non-combatant – no boots on the ground or pilots in the air – but the effort is analogous to America in the first years of the Second World War, maintaining neutrality but acting as the “arsenal of democracy” and lend-leasing supplies as Britain stood alone.

Ukraine stands alone, now, and it too needs all the help it can get to win the war. After that can come peace, a treaty and a renewed effort at detente with Russia with, or preferably without, President Putin in charge.