The best Rishi Sunak can hope for as PM is damage limitation

Editorial: Given the state of the economy, of his party and the opinion polls, Rishi Sunak can’t look forward to a long spell in No 10 with any great confidence

If Mr Sunak did nothing other than avoid the most egregious errors of his immediate predecessors, he would at least deserve to be given a chance (Getty)

Not so long ago, the arrival of a new British prime minister would be a relatively uncommon affair – a bit of an earthquake. Margaret Thatcher managed to clock up 11 years before her colleagues prevailed on her not to “go on and on”. John Major survived a recession and multiple attempts at defenestration until the voters caught up with him in 1997, after more than six years in office.

Tony Blair won an election after the Iraq War and lasted a decade. But things have generally turned less stable in more recent times, culminating in Liz Truss’s tragi-comic seven weeks in post, action-packed as they were. Three premiers so far this year, an attempted comeback by Boris Johnson, and seven chancellors in the past decade. The Italianisation of British politics seems complete.

Given the state of the economy, of his party and the opinion polls, Rishi Sunak can’t look forward to a long spell in No 10 with any great confidence. When the King comes to ask him to form an administration in his name, Mr Sunak might echo the joke of some of his predecessors and warn his monarch that he might not last as long as Ms Truss: gallows humour that might endear him to Charles III.

Of course, lacking any democratic mandate, Mr Sunak has no right to be prime minister for any particular span of time. The new prime minister’s first duty, having accepted the commission, should be to request a dissolution of parliament preparatory to a general election. It is the only way for his government to command democratic legitimacy and embark on its programme, given that not a single vote has been cast by anyone to place Mr Sunak in the highest of (usually) elected offices.

The general election mandate won by the Conservatives in 2019 is now hopelessly outdated and exhausted by changes in strategy, policy and leadership. The course charted now by Mr Sunak is radically different to that presented to the electorate three years ago. The country needs stability and an infusion of proper democratic participation.

The public rightly feel locked out of the magic circle constantly deciding on new prime ministers. It is absurd and outrageous. A change of Conservative prime ministers once again without recourse to the people is grotesque.

So what are Mr Sunak’s prospects? If the new prime minister did nothing other than avoid the most egregious errors of his immediate predecessors, he would at least deserve to be given a chance. The markets are already reassured that there will be no more unfunded tax cuts or any ill-fated dash for growth. “Levelling up” will not be a euphemism for wasteful electoral bribes. The lavish waste of the pandemic procurement programmes, partly indulged when Mr Sunak was chancellor, should be put behind him.

Mr Sunak will also have a different style, and one more suited to harder times. He has promised to be professional and competent, which is certainly an improvement on the May, Johnson and Truss years. He has spoken about restoring integrity, a welcome break with the habits of Boris Johnson, though Mr Sunak was also issued with a fixed penalty notice during Partygate. He has also had questions to answer about his US green card and his family’s tax arrangements. But no one has yet accused him of lying to the House of Commons, and it would be difficult for him to be less trustworthy than Boris Johnson.

Mr Sunak will also most likely adopt the practice of appointing a more balanced cabinet. Both Ms Truss and, latterly, Mr Johnson tended towards surrounding themselves with cronies, with a premium on loyalty above ability, including in the civil service, as far as they could. Much good that did either of them and, if only for the purpose of self-preservation, Mr Sunak would be wise to hold his enemies close to him.

Penny Mordaunt may expect a “big” job, and some of the loyal Johnsonites should also be accommodated. There is no pressing need, however, to retain the absurd poseur Jacob Rees-Mogg in office. To the relief of all concerned, Nadine Dorries looks unlikely to be recalled to service. Suella Braverman would be trouble, but better inside the tent than outside, if kept well away from refugees.

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We already know, with reasonable certainty, that Jeremy Hunt will continue as chancellor, with the much-delayed, and then brought forward medium-term fiscal plan well on target to be delivered on Halloween. The gilts market can now continue the recovery from the cardiac arrest it suffered after Mr Kwarteng’s shocker of a mini-Budget a few weeks ago.

The public finances remain in intensive care, and the economy is fragile, either in recession already or close to it. Again, Mr Sunak seems likely to strike a very different tone from his predecessors. Rather than boosterism and talk about a “new economic era” and “unleashing potential”, he will be honest with the voters, or at least that’s what he promised in the summer leadership hustings, and Mr Hunt has warned about “eye-watering choices”.

Mr Sunak is far from perfect. In the end, his may prove to be a “fag end” administration, rounding off 12 years of disastrous Tory rule and Brexit-induced self-harm with a simulacrum of effectiveness. The voters will wonder what, precisely, has been achieved since David Cameron scraped into power in 2010 with the near-suicidal assistance of the Liberal Democrats, only to concede an in-out EU referendum later.

He is the fifth premier, so far, of this regime, and the best he can hope for is damage limitation at the next election. For all his good intentions, Mr Sunak isn’t the answer to the country’s problems.