The Omicron crisis is less intense than feared – but non-Covid care is now the bigger threat

Editorial: England is now a place where people in cardiac arrest are advised to book an Uber, rather than dial 999

(Dave Brown)

Just because an inveterate gambler wins a bet, does that make his behaviour acceptable? Not, it must be said, when the risks were being taken with other people’s lives, and the gambler in question is HM government, charged with protecting the public health of the country – or at least England.

In Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland a more cautious approach has been applied, easing the burden of dealing with the backlog of non-Covid cases. In England, there are too many hospitals declaring “critical incidents”, a euphemism for collapse.

England is now a place where people in cardiac arrest are advised to book an Uber, rather than dial 999. Apparently the best that Boris Johnson can offer the country is that it will “ride out” the Omicron outbreak, even though hospitals will be – his words – “temporarily overwhelmed”.

In fairness to the prime minister, the decision taken by his cabinet just before Christmas not to add to the minimal health safeguards in England was taken against his wishes; just for once Boris Johnson was the one displaying some restraint and leadership – though his lack of political authority meant he was unable to impose his will on his ministerial colleagues (and his parliamentary party).

In fairness to the cabinet, some of the worst potential consequences of that collective lack of leadership before Christmas have not transpired. Some of that is down to the impressive rollout of the boosters, some of it is due to people exercising self-control and voluntarily limiting their contacts with others, the so-called “lockdown by stealth”; much can be attributed to the dedication and skill of NHS staff.

It has indeed turned out that Omicron is not as severe an variant as Delta, though it is more infectious. But Covid resulting from Omicron infection is not – as Professor Chris Whitty, chief medical officer for England, tries to remind anyone who will listen – a “mild” illness, comparable to the common cold.

As Omicron starts to move up the age groups, the pressure on beds and intensive care will inevitably increase, and deaths will inevitably follow.

The point about introducing more stringent rules even now – as should have been implemented before the festive season – is not so much that they would have helped with spreading the load of Covid cases (though they would), but that they would have greatly eased the unprecedented backlog of non-Covid care – elective and urgent.

The Omicron crisis may have been, thus far, less intense than feared, but the crisis in non-Covid care is now the bigger threat.

Keeping more people with Covid out of hospital would necessarily free up capacity to catch up with long-overdue crucial schedules of treatment in areas such as cancer. Keeping more people at work in hospitals, schools, other public services and elsewhere would also have supported the economy.

Boris Johnson says that his policy is “proportionate” and caricatures opponents for wanting permanent lockdown. No one, for many months, has advocated lockdown as a way to deal with the problems facing the NHS – and it seems clear at this stage that now is the time to take immediate pressures off the NHS, with modest measures such as limits on indoor gatherings and extended mask mandates.

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These are needed even more in a situation where people cannot test themselves for Covid because of the shortage of testing kits (possibly exacerbated by supply problems caused by the spread of Omicron, ironically).

The truth is that there never has been a trade-off between Covid and the economy, because of the economic damage a rapid spread of a deadly disease can do to an economy, and the current failure to deal with the latest iteration of the pandemic has left businesses throughout the land short of staff and short of customers.

The ideal window for acting – before the mass-mixing events at Christmas and new year – has been missed, but as earlier booster immunity wanes and the spread of the virus among older citizens accelerates, the case for extending plan B remains powerful.