Northern Irish unionist leaders have only themselves to blame for Sinn Fein’s success

Editorial: The nationalist cause is not gaining converts; the unionist cause is actively driving away its own supporters

Sinn Fein’s success came more from the failure of the unionist parties than from any great advance in the level of its own support (Reuters)

Sinn Fein’s victory in the assembly elections is a momentous one that will change the tenor of politics in Northern Ireland and pose deep questions about the future of the United Kingdom. It will further consolidate the party’s transition from its violent past and may incrementally strengthen the case for a united Ireland.

However, it is notable that Sinn Fein’s success came more from the failure of the unionist parties than from any great advance in the level of its own support. Overall, the nationalist parties lost ground, as the small increase in Sinn Fein’s vote was more than outweighed by the loss of the SDLP’s. The biggest winner of the election was the cross-community Alliance Party, which gained the most seats, winning votes from both sides of the community divide.

That suggests that a growing number of people in Northern Ireland feel that the constitutional question is for another day, and that their priority for now is to unite their society and to improve it by working together. Unfortunately, that sentiment is contradicted by the other big gainer from these elections: Traditional Unionist Voice (TUV), representing the least flexible part of unionism, one which regards the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) as a sellout for having shared power with nationalists.

The TUV’s success is both a cause and an effect of the turmoil in the two larger unionist parties, with the DUP the biggest loser in these elections and the Ulster Unionist Party also losing ground. Unionism is in disarray, with the DUP failing to have gained more than a temporary increase in spending on public services from its leverage over the previous Conservative government in Westminster. It regards the Northern Ireland protocol, justifiably, as a betrayal, but has so far been unable to do anything about it.

Nor has the UK government been able to deliver changes to the protocol. This may be because the prime minister is not particularly interested in the subject, or because no changes are possible that will solve the insoluble problem of Boris Johnson’s hard Brexit, which is that a customs border has to go somewhere.

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In that light, and given the sudden shift in trade patterns that have turned Northern Ireland’s economy more towards the Republic and less towards the rest of the UK, Sinn Fein’s relative success looks even less impressive. Once we get used to the symbolism of the dominant nationalist party gaining the right to nominate the first minister, it would seem that less has changed than meets the eye.

The right to nominate Michelle O’Neill as first minister does not mean that Ms O’Neill will become first minister, because the DUP is likely to continue its campaign of obstruction which has suspended the executive – the devolved government in Belfast. Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, will presumably return to his party’s long tradition of saying “no” when the new assembly meets this week.

Unionism is crying out for new vision and new leadership. Unless it finds it, its more pragmatic voters will continue to drift away to the more constructive politics of the Alliance Party on the centre ground. The nationalist cause is not gaining converts; the unionist cause is actively driving away its own supporters. Let us hope that Naomi Long and her Alliance Party can make something of its opportunity.