For the time being, Liz Truss has saved her political life – but at what cost?
Editorial: The prime minister has the great good fortune that her enemies are divided about whom they want to lead the party and what they want that person to do
To adapt the resonant phrase in the King James Bible (and often deployed at moments such as this): Greater love hath no woman than this, that she should lay down her friends for her life.
Liz Truss has bought a little time with her decision to jettison her chancellor. To save her own premiership, she has sacrificed her most senior minister. She has appointed a man, Jeremy Hunt, who, it must be assumed, stands for everything Ms Truss disdains. If Ms Truss is a radical disrupter, then Mr Hunt is exactly the kind of orthodox centre-right figure she had in mind for a bit of shaking about. It remains to be seen what kind of political marriage this odd couple will forge. It was not made in heaven but in the chaos of the capital markets; but you never know.
For the time being at least, the prime minister has indeed saved her political life, but at some considerable cost to herself, and with rather more damage inflicted on her old friend, soulmate and ally, Kwasi Kwarteng. He is, though, far from an innocent party in this farce. It was his sheer, unnecessary arrogance that led to much of the mess.
It was Mr Kwarteng who decided to dismiss Sir Tom Scholar, the permanent secretary to the Treasury, presumably for the crime of pointing out to the chancellor the risks he was taking. It was Mr Kwarteng who sidelined the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). It was Mr Kwarteng who derided the Bank of England and its governor, Andrew Bailey. It was Mr Kwarteng who farmed the mini-Budget and the “plan for growth”. Ms Truss was content to approve his plans, and shares responsibility, but he was surely the driving force that almost destroyed the entire government. We need not feel too sorry for him, either.
Liz Truss was elected as Conservative Party leader and, incidentally, prime minister, to cut taxes, which she claimed would lead to a faster trend rate of economic growth, as well as swiftly becoming self-financing. She chose Kwasi Kwarteng as the man to implement that plan. The radical mini-Budget was the “shock and awe” instrument designed to achieve that, with its unapologetic drive to further enrich the wealthiest in society. Hers was to be an administration all about “growth, growth, growth”. She was going to be a “disrupter”. It seems that it is she who has been disrupted.
The Truss-Kwarteng plan for growth is dead, lingering on as a mere “vision”. The question arises as to what Liz Truss is actually for. What is the programme of this administration? To the disappointment of her shrinking fan base, there will be no radical personal and corporation tax cuts to spur enterprise and attract foreign investment, so, according to Ms Truss’s own logic, the UK will remain over-taxed and blighted by slow growth. The economic problem that was supposed to be solved, or at least eased, by the tax cuts “unleashing potential” will remain. Trussonomics has failed before it even got going. It took a month to collapse, more or less. It was the shortest dash for growth in history. Ms Truss is redundant. Her new chancellor will be an unusually powerful figure in her government. That is a good thing for the country, if not for Ms Truss’s pride.
The move to appoint Mr Hunt may have been driven by a desperate sense of self-preservation, but it was an unusually smart pick in that respect. He will calm markets, he will work with the Treasury team, OBR and Bank of England to frame a perfectly credible medium-term fiscal plan, or at least as plausible as such things usually are. With most of the mini-Budget reversed, far fewer cuts in public spending will be required. Mr Hunt should be able to make his numbers add up. After all, he spent six years as health secretary trying to make the best of very scarce resources, and mostly keeping the lid on discontent.
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For now, then, it is going to be Mr Hunt who will be running Britain. The mouthwatering or terrifying (depending on taste) resurrection of Boris Johnson has been postponed. The Sunak-Mordaunt “dream ticket” can stand down. Kit Malthouse and Ben Wallace can stop dreaming about moving into No 10. Suella Braverman won’t stop campaigning to be leader but it seems she was probably doing that in the cradle, and her moment has passed.
Ms Truss has the great good fortune that her enemies are divided about whom they want to lead the party and what they want that person to do. It speaks of a much deeper malaise – a party fresh out of ideas and running low on talent. It may well be that Ms Truss and Mr Hunt will muddle through to the next election, hoping something will turn up, and with their poll ratings gradually moving upwards as memories of the years of scandal and incompetence start to fade a little. If they are fortunate they will avoid a deep recession, runaway inflation and a house price crash. By 2024, election year, things may feel easier. But the damage has been done.
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