With Covid cases rising, the government cannot afford to sink into complacency

Editorial: There is still plenty we need to learn about the evolution of the virus to ensure that action is taken to protect the most people

It is a case of thinking not just of the next few months but into next winter and the winter after that (PA)

An estimated 2.3 million people – or one in 30 – had Covid-19 in late June, according to the latest numbers from the Office for National Statistics. That is an increase of 32 per cent on the week before.

The rise is being powered by two sub-variants of Omicron, called BA.4 and BA.5, bringing a call from leading scientists for vaccines to be updated to target newer variants, keeping more people out of hospital.

The government’s mantra for some time has been that the UK needs to “learn to live with” the virus. The vaccine rollout has clearly provided an important layer of protection – if there had been such a volume of cases before the arrival of the vaccines, then there is no doubt that the NHS would be overwhelmed. That is not happening, although with hospital admissions on the rise, it would be remiss of the government to take its eye off the ball.

Fourth doses are already being rolled out to some groups and boosters are set to be offered to others in the autumn, and it would make sense for the vaccines to provide the most long-lasting protection they can. If that involves them being updated, then the government should take that advice on board.

Yes, hospital admissions are not at the same level as at other times in the pandemic, but variants do not have to be worse than what has come before to impact the NHS. If enough people become infected then the smaller number who get into real health difficulties can still be a big enough number to cause issues.

The vaccine rollout was one of the successes for the government – as Boris Johnson has never been slow to point out – during a pandemic beset by questions relating to the speed decisions were implemented, and a significant number of U-turns. The prime minister needs to beware of muddled decision-making or distractions caused by the disquiet within his own party (some of which is connected to lockdown events in Downing Street).

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Rising cases of Covid will also have a disproportionate effect on the clinically vulnerable and will bring more instances of long Covid. And it is a case of thinking not just of the next few months, but into next winter and the winter after that.

If Covid settles into a pattern where it impacts in a similar manner to the flu for most, there currently appears to be a difference – flu strikes mostly once a year, whereas this is not the first summer that a rise in Covid cases has occurred.

The government cannot automatically assume that planning around Covid-19 has become set in stone. There is still plenty we need to learn about the evolution of the virus and then ensure that the action that protects the most people is being taken, both during the next few months and into future years.