In the race between the Delta variant and the Covid vaccines, it would seem that the vaccine is at least keeping pace. Not to push the analogy too far, there was an increasing danger that the faster spread of the new mutation of the virus would mean that it would establish itself and cause a spike in cases before the usual effects of “herd immunity” started to protect the community as a whole.
That was certainly evidenced in the trends in the northwest of England, Bedford and elsewhere. Even though the link between infection, hospital admissions and death have been weakened by the vaccine programme and improved treatments, there was every possibility of a third wave of Covid. Hence the decision to postpone the so-called freedom day until 19 July.
It was far from a gamble, but one significant risk factor persisted: would young people volunteer for the jab? After all, right from the beginnings of the pandemic it became clear that the virus had a far more devastating effect on the old than the young. Why, then, would they bother going to the trouble of booking an appointment?
The signs are that the young have risen to the challenge, proving once again, that some of their elders have underestimated their common sense and the duty they feel towards their families and the community. Some 1 million booked an appointment for a jab in one day, an astonishing effort. It comes as Public Health England says there has been a 79 per cent rise in cases of the Delta variant in a week, driven by younger age groups.
Drop-in vaccination centres, with no appointment necessary and minimal bureaucracy are becoming a major help in the rollout. The target, according to some experts, is for 70 per cent of the population to enjoy some form of antibody protection. At that sort of magnitude, herd immunity provides an effective defence against another wave of mass infections in the medium term.
The population as a whole seems to have increasing confidence in the vaccines. The efforts of the irrational anti-vaxxers have failed, and their activities attract increasing ridicule and pity. People can see and feel for themselves the reality. The young are shrewd enough to realise that a mutation could potentially emerge that would affect them more seriously in future than the Delta and other variants have so far.
They have voted, so to speak, with their arms. That next area is to make sure schools are not be allowed to become transmission hubs.
It’s far too early to declare any kind of victory, however. Indeed, “living with Covid” is something that is crystallising in the public consciousness. We are realising that booster vaccine doses, periodic lockdowns, restrictions, masks and social distancing may all need to ebb and flow.
“Living with Covid” doesn’t mean just ignoring it. Our lives will likely continue to be disrupted, but the disruption will be that much less the greater the herd immunity and the greater the rate of vaccination. On that, at least, the trends are going in the right direction.
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