If China were to help Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, it would cost them dearly

Editorial: A substantial influx of Chinese military equipment could turn the fighting in Ukraine into a proxy war between America and China

(Brian Adcock)

Blessed are the peacemakers, as St Matthew’s gospel tells us, and there is no shortage of them at the moment. Belarus, Israel, Qatar, South Africa, Turkey – and now China – have offered their services as more or less honest brokers between Russia and Ukraine, and talks at various levels have taken place.

It is a measure of the bravery and calm determination of Volodymyr Zelensky to secure a future for his people that he is even prepared to travel to meet Vladimir Putin to make the effort for peace, his only precondition a request for a shorter table than the Russian autocrat usually likes.

President Putin, stiff and awkward at the best of times, seems unwilling to take up the offer and give President Zelensky the opportunity to make him look stubborn and aggressive in the eyes of the world; and – more importantly – in front of the people of Russia.

However, the Russians’ willingness to engage in talks, albeit at a lower level, may be more than bluff. As its incompetent military campaign has dragged on in the face of unexpectedly spirited Ukrainian resistance, the Kremlin should count itself lucky if it secured some of its original diplomatic objectives – formal recognition by Ukraine of Russian sovereignty over Crimea; secession of the two so-called people’s republics in Donbas; and a commitment never to join Nato. In return, the Russians would declare victory and withdraw, leaving the shameful wreckage behind.

Mr Zelensky knows better than most the relative weakness of Russia’s military position, as well as the dire predicament of the Ukrainian population, who are suffering so much. As a democratic leader, he will be sensitive to the mood among his own people, and for now, the mood of defiance and desire for revenge would suggest that the Ukrainians are not in the mood to compromise.

To that extent, Russia’s war of terror on Ukrainian civilians has, ironically, merely strengthened their resolve, as such tactics have done among civilian populations in past bombing wars.

An indication of the trouble the Russians are in on the ground (as opposed to lobbing missiles and shells from a safe distance) is the apparent request for military help from Belarus, Syria and, most significantly, China.

That is not a sign that an easy victory for Russia is around the corner. The Ukrainians say they will make Kyiv hell for the Russians, and there’s no doubt they will. Even with a nominal Russian victory, occupation and puppet government, Ukraine will never be pacified.

The Chinese have denied any such moves about helping Russia, as alleged by America, preferring to pose as peacemakers. This suggests that they are indeed very wary of aiding the Russians with lethal military equipment. It reflects their votes of abstention on the invasion at the UN.

There is no guarantee that the Russians would make effective use of Chinese hardware; there is still the possibility that the Ukrainians will bog the Russians down indefinitely with western military and financial aid, and for that reason there is little incentive for China to provoke the west and offer open-ended support to Russia.

A substantial influx of Chinese military equipment to aid Russia’s war of aggression would be rightly regarded by Nato as a hostile act, and one that threatens to turn the fighting in Ukraine into a proxy war between America and China. That would add a whole new dimension of global geopolitical danger to an already tense situation.

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Much the same goes for any Chinese attempts to help Russia evade or ameliorate sanctions. It would cost China dearly, in financial and diplomatic terms.

There is not much in it for China, in other words, in rescuing Mr Putin from his blunder in Ukraine. Besides, Russia and China remain traditional, historic rivals. In economic and trade terms, America is a far more valuable partner for China than Russia, a country with nuclear weapons but with the GDP of Italy and fighting an economic war with the west.

China has its own territorial ambitions, notably in Taiwan, and would not wish for those to be associated and equated with the Russian atrocities in Ukraine. Beijing owes Moscow nothing and is beginning to realise that Russia is an embarrassment and cannot win its war in Ukraine in any meaningful sense.

China’s offer of brokering peace is in reality an invitation (or demand) to Mr Putin to retreat. After almost three weeks of a war that was supposed to last three days, the Russian leader is looking surprisingly vulnerable.

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