Boris Johnson’s visit to India is unlikely to go as smoothly as he thinks

Editorial: Narendra Modi is just the kind of nationalistic, populist, authoritarian figure to use his considerable leverage against the prime minister

(Dave Brown)

It is a long time since a British prime minister could visit New Delhi and take it for granted that India would gracefully align its foreign policy interests with those of the former imperial power. Boris Johnson, who unfortunately carries about him the buffoonish air of a son of the Raj, will find a warm welcome and a willing partner in prime minister Narendra Modi when they meet; but also some very hard bargaining.

India, it is fair to say, has proved resistant to the west’s pleas for solidarity with Ukraine. Diplomatically, and notably at the UN, India has pursued its traditional non-aligned or neutral stance. It has abstained in key votes, and Mr Modi continues to pursue friendly dialogue with Vladimir Putin. No doubt he is privately as appalled as anyone at the barbarity of the Russian campaign and its crimes, and would want the war to be over as soon as possible. But he has been careful not to make an enemy of his powerful northern neighbour.

Mr Modi seeks to be friends, as far as possible, with America and Europe, and to keep territorial tensions with China to a minimum, as well as keeping a wary eye on Pakistan, which is currently going through a crisis of its own. It is not that Mr Modi is delicately walking a tightrope between Russia and the west so much as a whole cat’s cradle of them simultaneously. India, as an emerging economic superpower, wishes to be friends with all and next to none. That may not be sustainable.

Mr Johnson’s mission is twofold. First, he wants to persuade India to cease, or at least reduce, its consumption of Russia’s natural resources and armaments, and thus stop funding President Putin’s war machine. If China and India continue to trade and invest in Russia as normal, effectively busting the sanctions imposed by other countries, the economic war on Russia will be critically weakened and the agonies of Ukraine prolonged.

Mr Johnson might be in a better position if the likes of Germany weren’t continuing to purchase natural gas in such vast quantities, and it is difficult to see how he might convince India to sacrifice vital trade interests in the cause of Ukrainian sovereignty. Of course, India, China and Pakistan have their own long-standing territorial disputes, in which force has been used in the past. But it may not be obvious to India how its interests will be served by alienating Russia, with whom its close relationship dates back to the days of the Soviet Union and the Cold War. If it is a crude matter of putting Indian interests first, the outlook is poor.

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The only thing Mr Johnson can offer India is a closer defence and trade relationship with the UK. A tighter economic and security partnership has been ardently pursued since Brexit, with limited success. Mr Johnson’s government has proved more receptive than that of Theresa May to India’s requests for study and work visas, the sine qua non of any trade treaty, and that has helped.

Investment, familial, and historical ties have always been close, but since India decided to abandon central planning and rejoin the world economy in the 2000s, the imbalance in the relative size of the Indian and British economies has widened. The disparity in geopolitical power has only increased since Brexit, which severed the UK’s leadership role within the EU, the largest single market and economic bloc on the planet.

Today, Mr Johnson represents an economy set on slow medium-term growth, while India’s still-dynamic economy is four times the size of Britain’s GDP, adjusted for exchange rate vagaries. In short, India is now in a far stronger position to call the shots over trade and security, and Mr Modi is just the kind of nationalistic, populist, authoritarian figure who will make the best of that leverage.

Even if Mr Johnson were untroubled at home, he would find this visit something of a sticky wicket. As things stand, he’ll be grateful for whatever Mr Modi gives him.