Barring some truly bizarre twist in the psychodrama of the Tory party, Rishi Sunak will be prime minister in the coming days, if not hours. Perhaps Penny Mordaunt will be the beneficiary of Mr Johnson’s patronage and his supporters, but Mr Sunak looks too far ahead to be overhauled.
It’s over for the former prime minister as well as this leadership contest. The process has essentially been going on since Mr Johnson’s government collapsed under him in early July, with Liz Truss a mere semicolon between the Johnson and Sunak premierships.
It may be that Mr Johnson, ever ambitious, may in due course stage some kind of comeback, rising from the political grave like some sort of horror movie zombie. But at the moment it looks like “hasta la vista, baby” was an over-optimistic parting shot.
It has been a stunning decline from his triumphs of 2016 and 2019. Perhaps the most remarkable, if least remarked upon, aspect of Mr Johnson’s attempted comeback was that the early phases were conducted from a beach in the Dominican Republic. It was Mr Johnson’s third vacation since quitting as prime minister, not counting a £150,000 speaking engagement. No doubt he deserves a break as much as the next politician, but his final weeks as caretaker premier were hardly strenuous.
The crisis broke only to find Mr Johnson turning lobster red on a beach in the Caribbean: but parliament is supposed to be at work, and so is the MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The images of Mr and Mrs Johnson soaking up the sun seemed to sum up his out of touch, complacent and lazy style, and it is hardly consonant with the cold, hard times facing the nation.
It seems to have slowly occurred to Tory MPs, generally not much focused on policy, that Mr Johnson’s boosterish expansionism is poorly suited to restoring trust in the creditworthiness of the UK. His cakeism, which rested on unrestrained public borrowing, was already causing strain with his chancellor, Mr Sunak, when the pair were still in office. It was impossible to envisage the pair working together again – Mr Johnson is simply too erratic and unreliable a figure. Mr Johnson cannot be allowed anywhere near the top of government and economic policy. Apart from anything else, the markets would react badly and British debt would be more expensive to service – pushing interest rates higher for homebuyers and businesses.
It is time to end the posturing and the bluffing. If Mr Johnson were to admit that it really is all over for him, then he would do his successor and his party a great service. Skulking around the Commons as a kind of lost leader, a king over the water, Mr Johnson will be a permanent distraction. Just by being there on the stage he will destabilise the next government.
His concession statement suggests he thinks he would still win in 2024, and that he still has ambitions for the future, and that is both unrealistic and self-destructive. There is never any sense in what he says that he is the author of his downfall, or that he faces effective expulsion from parliament for lying. He should quit the Commons, before he’s pushed, and get on with his memoirs and making money.
As the age of Sunak dawns, it presents a grey, overcast vista. The new prime minister has two years at the most to reconcile the pressing need for national solvency and at least chart a course for sustainable public services and investment that will help Britain meets its needs in a tough post-Brexit environment.
The NHS needs urgent attention to clear backlogs and rectify waiting times; social care is now less well funded after the cut in national insurance; Britain needs to help defend Ukraine and provide for its own security; education is a vital priority; and green infrastructure spending remains key to boosting growth and energy security in the longer term.
None of this will be straightforward, but it should not be done on the backs of the poor, at home or abroad. The reaction to Ms Truss’s tax cuts for the rich showed that the public still demands fairness in making any sacrifices. Pain should be fairly apportioned. And a new economic strategy based on a closer partnership with the UK’s biggest market and source of supply is also essential.
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The EU is not the enemy, and the next government should not be obsessed with divergence for the sake of it.
Mr Sunak seems set to be the King’s second prime minister and the third this year without a single vote being cast by anyone. But when will the people be allowed to join this magic circle choosing the next PM? Constitutionally, it’s perfectly possible to have a new prime minister every week; but it is politically quite absurd, indeed grotesque.
The Tories have shown themselves unable to make tough decisions and break the deadlock on economic policy, and that will continue. They are divided because they don’t know what to do, collectively, or who should do it. They are exhausted and have run out of ideas and talent. This latest leadership contest hasn’t changed that, but merely underlined it. A general election would force them to face up to the challenges and the choices.
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