Could Boris Johnson really return as narcissist-in-chief of the Tory party?

The Conservatives, seemingly resigned to electoral defeat, have turned their attention to who should be the party’s next leader. But if the contest is between Johnson and Farage, writes Andrew Grice, the only winner will be Labour

Boris Johnson seems to be positioning himself as the Tories’ saviour once again (Getty)

Guess who’s back… back again,” said Nigel Farage in his latest Eminem act as he launched Reform UK’s implausibly funded “contract with the people”.

But the word in Conservative circles is that another blast from the past might soon be back. Don’t laugh, or cry: Boris Johnson.

It’s not as fanciful a proposition as it sounds. Johnson seems to be positioning himself as the Tories’ saviour – not from Theresa May, a stalled Brexit process or from Labour, but from Farage’s ambition to mount a reverse takeover of the Tories after the crushing election defeat that is expected. I suspect there’s more chance of Johnson returning as Tory leader than Farage leading a new Tory Reform Party.

Johnson’s desire to come back should come as no surprise. He told us so when he resigned in disgrace as prime minister, with “hasta la vista, baby”. Today his remaining allies tell me he has “unfinished business” and might just return quicker than he was planning.

This week disaffected Tory supporters tempted by Reform will receive direct mail letters from Johnson as the anxious Tories try to halt the Farage bandwagon. Reform continues to close the gap between the two parties in the opinion polls and the Tories appear to have given up outlining their own policies to warn Reform supporters about the dangers of a Labour “supermajority”.

Some Tories, including the likely future leadership contenders Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, want Farage to join their party to “unite the right”. Grassroots Tories would welcome Farage; a majority want him to be given the Tory whip if he is elected as MP for Clacton.

Nigel Farage, standing for parliament again after seven unsuccessful attempts, believes he will be a candidate for prime minister at the 2029 election (AFP/Getty)

Although both Farage and Johnson played a pivotal role in the 2016 referendum vote to leave the EU, they headed separate campaigns. They couldn’t work together now either. The Tory party is not big enough for two such giant egos.

Farage believes he will call the shots after a Tory rout, and wants the Tories to beg him to rescue them. Johnson will likely try to stop that but has a problem. Farage might be an MP and could run for the Tory leadership if he switched to the party. Johnson will not be an MP, though some Tories whisper mischievously that he could be after a by-election in Richmond and Northallerton constituency if Rishi Sunak left the Commons soon after the election. (He says he will stay on but has to say that now, doesn’t he?).

Sunak might not want to do Johnson any favours, but the Tory machine might. Although Conservative Party officials had hoped Johnson would campaign in the red wall, he has not yet rallied behind Sunak in his darkest hour. His Daily Mail columns attack Keir Starmer without mentioning Sunak.

It suits Team Boris to maintain the fiction that Sunak plotted to oust him as PM, when it was all Johnson’s own work. A humiliating Tory defeat would reinforce the narrative. Johnson allies claim the Tories were “only a few points behind in the polls” when he was forced out. They are convinced he would win the support of Tory grassroots members, who choose the leader.

The Tories should beware Farage’s embrace. He seems to fall out with everyone he works with. Heading a Tory-Reform party would be very different to being a one-man band who can dictate to Ukip, the Brexit Party or Reform.

But the Tories would be foolish to turn backwards to Johnson. His friends claim time is a healer, but audience reactions in this election’s TV debates show that voters have not forgotten the rule-breaking of Partygate or Johnson’s lies. The two events that have moved the polls since the 2019 election were Partygate and Liz Truss’s mini-Budget, not anything Sunak has done. I think he would be doing better in this contest if he had disowned his two predecessors at the start of his premiership, but he chose not to provoke another bout of civil war.

Johnson is a big figure. They might even give the Tories a hearing again if he returned. But claims he is the great vote-winner are open to question. More people voted Tory in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn and Brexit than to support Johnson, according to More in Common. Could he regain the red wall after his failure on levelling up?

Like Farage, Johnson is in it for himself, not the party. Would he really have the application, patience and stamina for a long haul as opposition leader that could last 10 years?

It makes sense for the Tories to use Johnson in their election mailshots and videos, but he is not the solution to their long-term problems; he is part of the problem. They need a next-generation leader who can look forward.

Like Farage, Johnson is a Marmite figure and I doubt he could secure enough votes to win a general election. A good test in politics is to read your enemy’s mind. Those Tories tempted to turn to Johnson should ask whether Labour would fear him or welcome his return. The latter, of course.