With Boris Johnson gone, Keir Starmer’s balancing act just got harder

The prime minister’s remarkably quick downfall now lands the opposition with a different set of problems, writes Andrew Grice

The crowning of a new Tory leader will inevitably make Starmer look less new (Getty)

Don’t call him ‘Boris’,” said the edict from the Labour leader’s office when Boris Johnson was riding high in 2019. Press releases were duly rewritten to be headed “Johnson.” The prime minister’s remarkably quick downfall now lands the opposition with a very different problem.

Labour had to call for Johnson to go but, as he sunk in a mess of his own making, it privately hoped he would cling on and fight the next general election. In 1990, Margaret Thatcher too was toppled by a Tory revolt only three years after winning a huge majority. Labour under Neil Kinnock was ahead in the opinion polls and, even on election night in 1992, confident of winning power. But voters judged they had already had a change of government and John Major unexpectedly won a majority.

Now some senior Labour figures fear history might repeat itself. “This is a moment of potential danger for us,” one admitted to me. Like Kinnock, Keir Starmer has made Labour more electable after a period of control by the left. It went into the 1992 election after three successive defeats. Starmer inherited a party that had lost four elections. Like Kinnock, he has not yet sealed the deal with voters. Starmer allies note one important difference: the next election will be his first, while Kinnock had been rejected by the voters in 1987.

However, the crowning of a new Tory leader will inevitably make Starmer look less “new.” He might be bland and cautious but the former director of public prosecutions scores high on probity and was a good antidote to the law-breaking Boris “one rule for us” Johnson, whose casual relationships included one with the truth.

Naturally, Starmer claims the “Tory party is corrupted and changing one man won’t fix that. Only a real change of government can give Britain the fresh start it needs.” Labour will argue that Johnson’s successor is tarnished by his sleazy regime and hope the Tory brand is contaminated. Indeed, only one in five people thinks the Tories are “fit to govern,” the lowest since 2011. Johnson’s chaotic fall – and the knowledge that many Tories still backed him when they knew he wasn’t “fit” for his job – could inflict more brand damage.

However, Tory leadership candidates will inevitably distance themselves from Johnson and promise to restore standards in public life. A “clean hands” leader who didn’t prop up Johnson – like Tom Tugendhat from the new generation or an experienced figure like Jeremy Hunt – might pose a bigger threat to Labour than rival candidates.

Whoever succeeds Johnson, Starmer needs to raise his game and enhance his public appeal to maintain Labour’s six-point average opinion poll lead – a modest gap given the Tories’ turmoil which suggests their brand is not damaged beyond repair.

A new prime minister normally enjoys a honeymoon period and the benefit of the doubt. Starmer can no longer ride to power on the back of Johnson’s unpopularity; his need to win positive support for what he and his party stand for is even more urgent.

It’s not all bad news for Labour. Johnson’s long goodbye and a divisive leadership contest might further harm the Tories’ standing. (Although the opposition threatens to try to evict Johnson from Downing Street immediately by tabling a Commons vote of no confidence, it knows even those Tory MPs who want Johnson out quickly will probably support the government rather than defeat it and risk a general election).

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For all Johnson’s increasingly obvious faults, some Labour MPs retained a sneaking respect for his campaigning skills and voter appeal. He was a flawed figure, but a big one. His successor might enjoy less appeal in the red wall. They will take over in the middle of an economic crisis hurting millions of people. With Partygate associated with the ancien regime, the economy will probably decide the next election. However, the 1992 contest was fought in a recession; a faltering economy does not necessarily help the opposition, since voters sometimes fear something worse. With Johnson gone, it is now even more important for Labour to convince the public it can be trusted on the economy. Yet too much caution on tax and spending pledges will make it harder to inject some policy fizz into Labour’s offer. Starmer’s balancing act just got harder.

Johnson’s departure will not deprive Labour of a “time for change” message at the next election. Some shadow cabinet ministers are privately urging Starmer to make more of the fact that the Tories have been in power since 2010. Johnson was seen as a very different animal and a new start, but it now might be easier for Labour to attack the "same old Tories” and recall their decade of austerity.

At the 1964 election, Labour under Harold Wilson sneaked over the finishing line after accusing the Tories of “13 wasted years” in power. “Fourteen wasted years” might prove a very powerful Labour election slogan in 2024.