Chinese rocket tracker - live: Falling spacecraft falls to Earth over Indian Ocean, reports say

If rocket debris landed over an inhabited area, it would be akin to a ‘small plane crash ... over 100 miles’.

Long March-5B rocket takes off from Wenchang Satellite Launch Center

The Long March 5B rocket, which carried a Chinese space station module, has dropped into low Earth orbit and now risks crashing back down.

The rocket successfully launched the Tianhe module last week, which will become the living quarters of the future Chinese Space Station (CSS). Unfortunately, the 30-metre long rocket also reached orbit, and is now one of the largest ever launches to make an uncontrolled re-entry.

It is uncommon for rockets to reach the velocity necessary to reach orbit, but it is currently travelling around the world once every 90 minutes, or seven kilometres every second. It passes by just north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing, and as far south as Chile and New Zealand.

There are fears that the rocket could land on an inhabited area; the last time a Long March rocket was launched in May 2020, debris was reported falling on villages in the Ivory Coast. The speed of the rocket means scientists still do not yet know when it will fall, but it is likely to do so before 10 May 2021.

Read more:

• Huge Chinese rocket falling back to Earth in uncontrolled reentry
• Chinese rocket falls back to Earth: what do we know so far?
• China’s falling rocket: what happens if out-of-control Long March 5B hits the Earth?

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Key points

• The 21-ton Long March 5B rocket carried a module of China’s new space station into low Earth orbit last week
• The speed of the rocket means it is orbiting the Earth every 90 minutes
• The Long March 5B core stage is seven times bigger than the second stage of SpaceX’s Falcon 9

[8 May 2021 19:49 · Andrew Griffin]

Key tracking website goes down ahead of re-entry

The Aerospace Corporation, one of the key organisations tracking the satellite and projecting its re-entry, has seen its website go down, presumably because of the huge interest. Here’s its latest forecast, in the meantime.

[8 May 2021 18:22 · Andrew Griffin]

New rocket should be less damaging than older ones

China has drawn a lot of criticism for letting this rocket come down uncontrolled. But as Scott Manley points out here, it could be worse – indeed it has been, with previous versions of the same rocket.

[8 May 2021 17:15 · Andrew Griffin]

US government tracker still slightly earlier

The US government tracker – which can be found at Space-Track.org – is still showing the possible re-entry as slightly earlier.

It has a re-entry time at 2.27am UTC on Sunday morning, with a window of three hours either side.

[8 May 2021 17:12 · Andrew Griffin]

Rocket re-entry still expected early Sunday

The latest predictions from the Aerospace Corporation are here.

They’ve not changed much; the window has just shifted back by eight minutes.

That means everything is still expected to happen early on Sunday; some time between 11.30am UTC and 7.30am UTC.

[8 May 2021 15:45 · Andrew Griffin]

Latest possible impact locations suggest China is safe

The refining of the possible impact time also means that the location can be refined too. Not by much, since the rocket is moving so fast, but by enough to rule out an impact with China:

McDowell also notes that NYC and Elon Musk are out of the impact zone, too. “I apologise to everyone who was hoping for a more dramatic SNL tonight than usual,” he jokes.

[8 May 2021 15:28 · Andrew Griffin]

The new Aerospace Corporation estimate is out – and puts the potential arrival somewhere between 11.22pm UTC on Saturday, and 7.22am UTC on Sunday.

[8 May 2021 15:05 · Andrew Griffin]

Time and timezones of rocket re-entry

The times below – and in the future too – will mostly be in UTC. That’s one hour behind the current UK time, if that helps. If not, this website which allows you to easily convert might do.

[8 May 2021 14:06 · Andrew Griffin]

The trackers at EU Space Surveillance and Tracking have narrowed down their estimate, giving a smaller window that puts a potential fall early in the morning UK time.

There is this caveat from Jonathan McDowell:

[8 May 2021 13:43 · Andrew Griffin]

Space Force’s latest estimate shows rocket arriving on Sunday morning

The latest data from the Space Force has the rocket dropping just before 3am UTC. It could be six hours before or after that, though, because of the uncertainty.

As ever, that means there’s no real way of knowing where it might land: even a difference of minutes would lead to a vast change in where it would drop down, given the speed it is orbiting.

[8 May 2021 11:00 · Andrew Griffin]

Rocket due to drop within hours

Here’s our latest report on the rocket, when it might fall, and what that might mean.