Chinese rocket tracker - live: Falling spacecraft falls to Earth over Indian Ocean, reports say
If rocket debris landed over an inhabited area, it would be akin to a ‘small plane crash ... over 100 miles’.
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Your support makes all the difference.The Long March 5B rocket, which carried a Chinese space station module, has dropped into low Earth orbit and now risks crashing back down.
The rocket successfully launched the Tianhe module last week, which will become the living quarters of the future Chinese Space Station (CSS). Unfortunately, the 30-metre long rocket also reached orbit, and is now one of the largest ever launches to make an uncontrolled re-entry.
It is uncommon for rockets to reach the velocity necessary to reach orbit, but it is currently travelling around the world once every 90 minutes, or seven kilometres every second. It passes by just north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing, and as far south as Chile and New Zealand.
There are fears that the rocket could land on an inhabited area; the last time a Long March rocket was launched in May 2020, debris was reported falling on villages in the Ivory Coast. The speed of the rocket means scientists still do not yet know when it will fall, but it is likely to do so before 10 May 2021.
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Key tracking website goes down ahead of re-entry
The Aerospace Corporation, one of the key organisations tracking the satellite and projecting its re-entry, has seen its website go down, presumably because of the huge interest. Here’s its latest forecast, in the meantime.
New rocket should be less damaging than older ones
China has drawn a lot of criticism for letting this rocket come down uncontrolled. But as Scott Manley points out here, it could be worse – indeed it has been, with previous versions of the same rocket.
US government tracker still slightly earlier
The US government tracker – which can be found at Space-Track.org – is still showing the possible re-entry as slightly earlier.
It has a re-entry time at 2.27am UTC on Sunday morning, with a window of three hours either side.
Rocket re-entry still expected early Sunday
The latest predictions from the Aerospace Corporation are here.
They’ve not changed much; the window has just shifted back by eight minutes.
That means everything is still expected to happen early on Sunday; some time between 11.30am UTC and 7.30am UTC.
Latest possible impact locations suggest China is safe
The refining of the possible impact time also means that the location can be refined too. Not by much, since the rocket is moving so fast, but by enough to rule out an impact with China:
McDowell also notes that NYC and Elon Musk are out of the impact zone, too. “I apologise to everyone who was hoping for a more dramatic SNL tonight than usual,” he jokes.
The new Aerospace Corporation estimate is out – and puts the potential arrival somewhere between 11.22pm UTC on Saturday, and 7.22am UTC on Sunday.
Time and timezones of rocket re-entry
The times below – and in the future too – will mostly be in UTC. That’s one hour behind the current UK time, if that helps. If not, this website which allows you to easily convert might do.
The trackers at EU Space Surveillance and Tracking have narrowed down their estimate, giving a smaller window that puts a potential fall early in the morning UK time.
There is this caveat from Jonathan McDowell:
Space Force’s latest estimate shows rocket arriving on Sunday morning
The latest data from the Space Force has the rocket dropping just before 3am UTC. It could be six hours before or after that, though, because of the uncertainty.
As ever, that means there’s no real way of knowing where it might land: even a difference of minutes would lead to a vast change in where it would drop down, given the speed it is orbiting.
Rocket due to drop within hours
Here’s our latest report on the rocket, when it might fall, and what that might mean.
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