Ukraine already preparing for ‘worst-case scenario’ winter siege, says UK

Ukraine prepares fuel reserves for upcoming winter amid ongoing Russian seige, UK MoD says

Ukraine is already stockpiling fuel ahead of another challenging winter under siege from Russia, the UK’s Ministry of Defence said on Thursday.

The ministry said in its intelligence report that “despite the consistent pressures of war, Ukrainian efforts to build up fuel stockpiles will likely be successful in ensuring that it will have sufficient fuel reserves during the approaching winter period.”

It also noted that “Ukraine has been effective in mobilising its mining sector to maintain output, ensuring a continuous supply of coal is available for thermal power and heating plants in the winter, with substantial gas stocks providing a further reserve”.

“Despite Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure likely continuing this winter, Ukraine demonstrated last winter that it has the skilled workforce and expertise needed to operate and maintain the power network, even in wartime conditions,” it further noted in the defence intelligence report.

Even as British analysts acknowledged the likelihood of Russia resuming attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure in winter, they highlighted the country’s ability to sustain its power network in the face of wartime challenges, the Kyiv Independent reported.

In the winter of 2022-2023, Russian forces attempted to severely damage Ukraine’s power network through extensive attacks. Despite this, prime minister Denys Shmyhal reported that substantial repairs have been carried out, restoring 80 per cent of the primary power grids and high-voltage stations affected by the assaults.

On 15 November last year, Mr Shmyhal pointed out that Moscow had launched approximately 100 missiles, primarily targeting the country’s energy infrastructure.

Energy minister Herman Haluschenko labelled the attack the “most massive” bombardment of power infrastructure since the beginning of the war.

In July this year, infrastructure minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said that nearly 100 per cent of thermal power stations, which had suffered damage from Russian attacks in late 2022 and early 2023, have been successfully repaired.

“In general, as of today, the preparation level of utility networks for stable operation in the autumn-winter period of 2023-2024 is roughly 60 per cent,” the minister wrote on social media, adding that Ukraine will be 100 per cent ready in technical terms before the start of the next heating season on 1 October.

“We must be prepared for the worst-case scenario, which includes repeated missile and drone attacks on energy infrastructure,” Ukraine’s state energy operator Ukrenergo’s head, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi said in Kharkiv on 27 July, according to Ukrainska Pravda.

He continued: “We at Ukrenergo are absolutely certain that our main network will be ready to function without restrictions during the heating season.”

However, he also added: “We don’t want to help the enemy understand the power system in detail.”