Trump and Harris tied in nearly all battleground states just 33 days before election: Live updates

Vice presidential nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz kept tone surprisingly civil on debate stage on Tuesday night, even when discussing hot-button issues like abortion, immigration, and gun control

JD Vance has his mic cut as VP candidates spar over immigration

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump remain deadlocked in the key battleground states according to new polling by The Cook Political Report.

The vice president leads Trump in Michigan by three percentage points, and she also leads by one or two points in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, and they are tied in North Carolina.

Trump leads in Georgia by two percentage points. All leads are within the margin of error.

Vice presidential rivals JD Vance and Tim Walz met for their first and probably final debate last night, with the Republican appearing more confident, polished, and prepared than his Democratic counterpart, who nevertheless landed some important blows.

Vance delivered a noticeably softer performance than usual and rarely wavered in his responses – even when confronted over his past comments about Trump and his recent lie about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, eating residents’ pets.

Walz meanwhile struggled to find his footing, appearing nervous and unsure in some of his early answers, but got more comfortable as the 90-minute showdown progressed and did well pressing the Ohio Senator on abortion, January 6, and Trump’s ongoing election denialism.

Key Points

• New polling shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in six battleground states
• JD Vance appears more confident than Tim Walz during surprisingly cordial debate
• Watch the VP debate highlights, as chosen by the candidates
• Snap polls after debate reveal what voters think of Vance and Walz’s performances
• Who won the vice presidential debate?
• Where will Kamala Harris, Joe Biden and Donald Trump be on Wednesday?

[2 October 2024 16:20 · Oliver O'Connell]

Trump campaign hopeful Vance’s debate performance will shake ‘weird’ label

The Trump-Vance campaign is hopeful the vice presidential candidate’s debate performance last night will improve his “weird” image and could kick-start the campaign for the Republican ticket, according to reports.

For months, JD Vance has struggled to shirk off the “weird” label given to him by his Democratic opponent Tim Walz early on in the 2024 presidential campaign.

But last night could mark a turning point.

Rhian Lubin reports.

[2 October 2024 16:10 · Oliver O'Connell]

New poll shows Trump slipping on economy and inflation versus Harris

The latest polling by The Cook Political Report, conducted between September 19-25, shows Donald Trump’s advantage slipping on the economy and inflation versus Kamala Harris.

Trump holds a five-point lead on the question of who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50-45%). But, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s six-point lead from August has evaporated. In August, Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48 per cent to 42 per cent. Today, voters are evenly divided (47 per cent) on who they trust more to handle an issue that 60 per cent of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.”

According to Cook there are a few explanations for this shift.

The first is that Harris’s message on the economy has broken through. Since kicking off her campaign two months ago, Harris has honed in on an “affordability” message that stresses reducing the costs of pharmaceutical drugs, cracking down on price gouging, and promoting affordable housing. She has also unveiled an 82-page economic policy plan.

Another is that Trump’s attempts to link her to “Bidenomics” and the role the Biden Administration’s economic policy played in driving up the cost of living have not been as effective as Republicans had hoped.

Voters give Trump only a three-point lead on a centerpiece of his economic agenda — tariffs and trade. Just 38 per cent of swing state voters said they thought that a 20 per cent tariff on imported goods would mean “companies would bring more manufacturing jobs back to the US”, while a plurality of voters (45 per cent) said that companies that import goods would “increase the prices consumers pay to pay for the tariff”.

Harris is likely also being helped by the fact that voters are slightly less pessimistic about the state of inflation and the economy today than they were in August. They also feel decidedly less gloomy about the economy and inflation than they felt in May, with 46 per cent saying things are getting better or staying the same in September, versus 38 per cent in May. The percentage of people who felt the economy is getting worse has dropped from 62 per cent in May to 54 per cent in September.

The gap between those who think inflation is getting better or staying the same and those who think it’s getting worse is eight points — a 17-point decrease in economic pessimism over the last four months.

[2 October 2024 16:00 · Oliver O'Connell]

Walz faces backlash after saying he has made friends with school shooters

Tim Walz is facing backlash after saying he had “become friends with school shooters” in an apparent slip up during the vice presidential debate.

The father of a 2018 Parkland shooting victim was among those who called out the Democrat, branding the apparent gaffe “absolutely abhorrent” in a post on X.

Kelly Rissman reports.

[2 October 2024 15:50 · Oliver O'Connell]

New polling shows Harris leading or tied with Trump in six battleground states

A new Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey conducted by BSG and GS Strategy Group of 2,941 voters between September 19-25, shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading or tied with former President Donald Trump in all but one of the seven battleground states.

Overall, she holds a narrow lead of 49 per cent to 48 per cent in a head-to-head race. August polling by the group had Harris leading 48 per cent to 47 per cent.

Harris has a lead within the margin of error in Arizona (+2), Michigan (+3), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2). Trump is ahead 49 per cent to 47 per cent in Georgia, and the two candidates are tied at 49 per cent in North Carolina.

[2 October 2024 15:40 · Oliver O'Connell]

‘Nostradamus’ pollster reveals who won VP debate

Allan Lichtman, the pollster dubbed the “Nostradamus of presidential predictions”, has delivered his verdict on last night’s vice presidential debate.

Speaking on a YouTube livestream, the 77-year-old described JD Vance as “very personable” and “slick” but concluded Tim Walz “finally found his voice” on a key issue, which then tipped the debate in the Democrat’s favor.

Rhian Lubin and Joe Sommerlad report.

[2 October 2024 15:20 · Joe Sommerlad]

Recap: Vance labels climate change as ‘weird science’ as he refuses to say it’s real

Here’s Rhian Lubin on the Republican struggling to sidestep a question about global warming mere days after Hurricane Helene but deadly destruction to the southeastern United States.

[2 October 2024 15:00 · Joe Sommerlad]

Recap: Walz admits he was a ‘knucklehead’ to misspeak about Tiananmen Square experience

Let’s take a look back at some of the key interludes from last night’s head-to-head.

First up, here’s Josh Marcus on the Democrat having to backtrack on his past comments about his stay in China in 1989.

[2 October 2024 14:40 · Joe Sommerlad]

Trump pulls out of 60 Minutes interview, four years after storming out of previous episode

Donald Trump pulled out of an election season interview with CBS News’s 60 Minutes that was set to air on Monday, with the Republican’s camp citing fact-checking provisions and a long-running dispute over the Hunter Biden laptop story as reasons why.

60 Minutes announced the cancellation over X.

“After initially accepting 60 Minutes’ request for an interview with Scott Pelley, former President Trump’s campaign has decided not to participate,” the show wrote in a statement.

The Trump campaign denied he was ever set to appear on the program, where Harris will also sit for an in-depth interview.

“There were initial discussions, but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in,” Trump spokesman Steven Cheung wrote on X.

“They also insisted on doing live fact checking, which is unprecedented.”

Josh Marcus has more on the no-show.

[2 October 2024 14:20 · Joe Sommerlad]

Vance hit with Amy Adams jokes after boasting about bringing jobs back to America

The Republican’s attack on the Biden administration for allowing clean energy jobs to go to China yesterday, part of an attempt to pitch himself as a dynamic job creator, has invited a slew of derision online, with many film fans noting the sad lack of work coming the way of the award-winning Amy Adams since she starred in the Netflix adaptation of his memoir Hillbilly Elegy in 2020.

Greg Evans reports.

[2 October 2024 14:00 · Joe Sommerlad]

Jimmy Kimmel mocks ‘boring’ VP debate between Vance and Walz

Here’s James Liddell with the view from late-night.