Biden approves new nuclear strategy focussed on coordinated Russia-China threat

The strategy takes into account rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and ongoing threats from Russia

President Joe Biden has quietly approved a new US nuclear strategy focusing on China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal earlier this year, a new report has revealed.

The Nuclear Employment Guidance (NEG) is designed to prepare the US for potential nuclear confrontations with Russia, China, and North Korea, The New York Times reported. The strategy takes into account the rapid expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal and ongoing threats from Russia, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine, the report said.

On Tuesday, the White House said it was not a response to any specific country or threat, but rather a broad deterrent policy. Spokesperson Sean Savett said that while “the specific text of the guidance is classified, its existence is in no way secret. The guidance issued earlier this year is not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat”.

The strategy is also significant as the New Start nuclear arms control agreement with Russia is set to expire in 2026 without a replacement in place. Under the treaty, which was last extended back in 2021 through to 2026, the two nations are allowed to inspect each others’ nuclear weapons facilities.

In January last year, a US State Department spokesperson said that Russia “is not complying with its obligation under the New Start Treaty to facilitate inspection activities on its territory”.

“Russia’s refusal to facilitate inspection activities prevents the United States from exercising important rights under the treaty and threatens the viability of US-Russian nuclear arms control,” the spokesperson said.

The NYT reported that the NEG reflects the Pentagon’s assessment that China’s nuclear capabilities will soon rival those of the US and Russia, fundamentally altering the global nuclear landscape.

“The president recently issued updated nuclear weapons employment guidance to account for multiple nuclear-armed adversaries,” Vipin Narang, an MIT nuclear strategist who served in the Pentagon was quoted as saying by the outlet.

“And in particular,” he added, the weapons guidance accounted for “the significant increase in the size and diversity” of China’s nuclear arsenal.

Over the past few years, the global nuclear landscape has shifted dramatically, prompting the Biden administration to reevaluate and update its nuclear strategy. Traditionally, US nuclear policy has been heavily focused on deterring Russia, given the size and scope of its nuclear arsenal.

However, China’s rapid expansion of its nuclear capabilities has become a growing concern for US defence officials.

“The Chinese side has decided to hold off discussion with the US on a new round of consultations on arms control and non-proliferation. The responsibility fully lies with the US,” Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, told a regular news briefing last month.

The suspension of talks dealt a potentially serious setback to global arms control efforts, with Beijing joining Moscow in refusing to discuss with Washington measures to contain a nuclear arms race.

NYT reported that the new document serves as a clear warning that the next president, taking office on 20 January, will face a far more unstable and dangerous nuclear environment than the one seen just three years ago.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has made multiple threats to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, including during a particularly tense episode in October 2022. During that crisis, President Biden and his team, after reviewing intercepted communications between high-ranking Russian officials, were concerned that the chances of nuclear deployment could have escalated to 50 per cent or more.

The US, which in June this year declared the possibility of deploying more strategic nuclear weapons to deter Russia and China, currently possesses about 3,700 nuclear warheads, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

According to the Guardian, Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said that while US intelligence estimates suggest China may increase the size of its nuclear arsenal from 500 to 1,000 warheads by 2030, Russia currently has about 4,000 nuclear warheads “and it remains the major driver behind US nuclear strategy”.