2020 polls latest: Mueller report will not exonerate Donald Trump, latest poll says as America watches William Barr
Check in here — feel free to bookmark this page! — for the most recent polling as a crowded democratic field looks to take on Donald Trump in 2020
The latest headlines from our reporters across the US sent straight to your inbox each weekday
Your briefing on the latest headlines from across the US
With a burgeoning field of Democratic presidential hopefuls vying for their party’s nomination to take on Donald Trump in 2020, a tight grouping of candidates has emerged with a just a few earning the distinction as front-runners in the polls.
As those democrats cross the country from Iowa to New Hampshire and South Carolina hoping to earn voter support, Mr Trump faces his own reckoning in the form of approval ratings for the job he is doing as president.
So far in the just over two years he has been in office, Mr Trump has seen approval ratings in the low 40s — a troubling sign for a man who hopes to once again win one of the most powerful offices in the world.
Take a look below for the latest poll coverage from The Independent. We will be updating with the latest individual polls of import, as well as frequent updates on the aggregates of polls and what they mean for the 2020 election prospects.
Please allow a moment for live blog to load.
Most Americans don't think the Mueller report will be good news for TrumpA new poll released on the eve of the Mueller report being sent to Congress indicates that most Americans (45 per cent) do not believe that the investigation will exonerate the president — in spite of Donald Trump's insistence that it did.
Just 30 per cent of respondents to the poll conducted by the Navigator research project said they trust the president's interpretation of the summary sent by attorney general William Barr to Congress just days after receiving the report last month.
That summary indicated there was no collusion, and that the Justice Department would not charge the president with obstruction. It noted, however, that the special counsel investigation itself did not conclude whether Mr Trump obstructed justice.
The poll was conducted between 1 April and 7 April, shortly after the summary was released. Overall, 1,005 registered voters were contacted online. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points.
Sanders leads in latest poll, with Buttigieg risingThe latest poll from Emerson College has Bernie Sanders leading in the Democratic primary wit 29 per cent support, followed by Joe Biden with 24 per cent.
Mr Biden hasn't officially announced his candidacy just yet, but the poll shows that he would enter a competitive race in spite of his consistent lead in other polls.
Followed by those two men is Pete Buttigieg, the youngest candidate in the race and a newcomer to national politics. Mr Buttigieg received 9 per cent support.
“While still early in the nominating process, it looks like Mayor Pete is the candidate capturing voters’ imagination,” Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson Polling, said in a statement Monday. “The numbers had him at 0% in mid-February, 3% in March and now at 9% in April.”
He is followed by Kamala Harris and Beto O'Rourke, who are tied for fourth with 8 per cent support. Elizabeth Warran is next with 7 per cent support.
The poll was conducted between 11 April and 14 April, and contacted 914 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 points.
Buttigieg coming in hot in Iowa now, tooPete Buttigieg's name was barely known just months ago, but he now comes in third place in both Iowa and New Hampshire polling — the first two states to vote in the primary season.
Mr Buttigieg's polling in New Hampshire was announced on Wednesday, and a new poll from Monmouth University has placed him third in Iowa now as well.
That poll has him attracting 9 per cent approval, and trailing Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Those two politicians receive 27 per cent and 16 per cent support, respectively.
The poll puts Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren both at 7 per cent, Beto O'Rourke at 6 per cent, Amy Klobuchar at 4 per cent, and Cory Booker at 3 per cent.
The survey was conducted between 4 April and 9 April, and contacted 351 likely Democratic caucus goers. There is a margin of error of plus or minus 5.2 per cent.
Buttigieg surges to third place in New HampshireFresh off of an impressive first quarter fundraising haul, South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg has surged to third place in America's first primary state, New Hampshire.
While still trailing the likes of Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden, Mr Buttigieg has gained some major ground in the state, according to a Saint Anselm College poll.
That poll had Mr Biden coming in with 22.9 per cent of the vote, followed by Mr Sanders with 15.6 per cent, and then Mr Buttigieg with 10.7 per cent.
No other candidate broke double digits. Elizabeth Warren registered with 8.7 per cent, while Kamala Harris received 6.8 pr cent.
The survey contacted 698 Granite State voters between 3 April and 8 April, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 per cent.
Voters think Trump has done a good job on the economy — a really good sign for his chances in 2020Donald Trumps favorability ratings have been anything but stellar since he announced his candidacy to become president in 2015, but a new poll suggests that he has strong support when it comes to the economy.
The new poll by the Georgetown Institute of Politics and Public Service found that 59 per cent of registered voters are somewhat concerned about an economic downturn, but that the president is still in the black when it comes to approval of his handling of the economy.
While his approval ratings overall have stuck in the low 40s during his presidency, the new poll finds that a full 58 per cent approve of his stewardship of the US economy, according to the poll.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters between 31 March and 4 April, with a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.
Biden emerges largely unscathed after inappropriate touching allegations — and Democratic women still support himHe hasn't even declared that he is running for president yet, but Joe Biden has enjoyed a lead in Democratic primary polls so far — and that lead has remained unchanged in light of recent allegations that he touched women inappropriately on several occasions.
A new Morning Consult poll shows Mr Biden as having 32 per cent support among those in the crowded field, a full 9 per cent ahead of his nearest competitor, Bernie Sanders.
That represents just a 1 per cent drop from last week, and shows that the former vice president has some good staying power in the race should he decide to jump in the race.
Among women in the Democratic primary, Mr Biden lost just 0.8 per cent support since the allegations surfaced.
The survey was conducted between April 1 and 7, and contacted 13,664 voters. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1 per cent.
South Carolina's dark horse? Could be Stacey AbramsA new poll looking into voter preference in South Carolina — an important early primary state for the Democratic nomination — shows that Joe Biden is the favorite there, but former Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams is coming in hot.
Neither candidate as actually announced their intention to seek the Democratic nomination, but Ms Abrams popped up on the poll after not registering during the last Change Research poll in February.
Ms Abrams and South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg both showed up on the poll after not registering in February. Both got 7 per cent support.
Mr Biden got 32 per cent support in the field, and is followed by Bernie Sanders, who got 14 per cent.
The poll contacted 744 voters in the state, and had a margin of error of 3.2 per cent.
Wall Street overwhelmingly thinks Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020. They also think Joe Biden is the most market-friendly candidate out there.A new survey published by RBC Capital Markets suggests that Wall Street insiders think Donald Trump will win re-election in 2020, and that Joe Biden is the most market friendly politician in the current field of candidates and potential candidates.
The confidence in Mr Trump's re-election is pretty staggering amongst those in the group: 70 per cent say they think he is going to win in 2020.
But, Wall Street doesn't necessarily have a magic crystal ball: In 2016, 80 per cent of those insiders thought that Hillary Clinton would beat Mr Trump to become president.
As for the least market-friendly candidate? That designation goes to senator Elizabeth Warren.
Break up Amazon and Google? Americans aren't so sure about Elizabeth Warren's idea...Senator Elizabeth Warren has been introducing policy proposal after policy proposal as she makes her case that she should be elected president — including one particularly controversial idea to break up the major tech companies that have come to control massive portions of our every day lives.
A new poll shows that Americans aren't completely sold on the idea, at least not yet.
The NBC News/WSJ poll found that 50 per cent of Americans do not think that the government should come in and break up massive tech firms with a worth of at least $25b. Meanwhile, 47 per cent said that the companies should be broken up a bit.
When asked if the free market should be doing the breaking up, Americans are a bit more decisive. The poll found that 68 per cent feel that the free market should make decisions surrounding the breaking up of big tech firms. That's compared to 28 per cent who felt otherwise.
The survey was conducted between March 23 and 27, and 1,000 voters were surveyed.There was a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.
One year from the first votes, polls are already an important marker for the DemsWith just over a year until the first votes are cast in primary and caucus states, the prospect of following polls at this point may seem ridiculous to some — but performance in these surveys can have a major impact on the burgeoning field.
The Democratic National Committee is preparing for a contentious debate season ahead of those votes, and candidates need to receive at least 1 per cent in three DNC-approved polls in order to qualify.
Here are the two ways the DNC has identified for candidates to qualify for the debates, which start in June:
- "Register 1% or more support in three polls (which may be national polls, or polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and/or Nevada) publicly released between January 1, 2019, and 14 days prior to the date of the Organization Debate." Naturally, there are restrictions on which polls qualify for consideration.
- "Candidates may qualify for the debate by demonstrating that the campaign has received donations from at least (1) 65,000 unique donors; and (2) a minimum of 200 unique donors per state in at least 20 U.S. states."
So far, these candidates (or potential candidates) have already qualified:
- Bernie Sanders
- Joe Biden
- Kamala Harris
- Beto O'Rourke
- Elizabeth Warren
- Cory Booker
- Amy Klobuchar
- Pete Buttigieg
- Julian Castro
- Kirsten Gillibrand
- Jay Inslee
- John Hickenlooper
- Andrew Yang
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies