Canada election results: Trudeau expected to maintain grip on power in minority government after fraught election against Scheer
Latest updates from a night of relief and political redemption for Justin Trudeau
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Your support makes all the difference.Justin Trudeau is projected to retain power in the Canada's parliamentary elections, with a likely minority government forming after his Liberal Party shed seats in the country's parliament.
After a vicious campaign season known more for its scandals and vicious attacks than policy, the Liberals walked away from Monday's election with 157 seats — just 13 shiy of a majority.
New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh said he had congratulated Mr Trudeau on winning the most seats and said his party would be a constructive participant in the new parliament.
While it is clearly good news for Mr Trudeau — who has been politically redeemed to some extent after repeated scandal throughout the past year — the sharing of power with the New Democrats will undoubtedly make it difficult to pass legislation in the years ahead.
Conservatives walked away with 121 seats, while Bloc Québécois got 32 seats, and the Green Party got three. The New Democratic Party secured 24 seats.
Mr Trudeau's victory also shows a marked drop in support for the progressive leader, who was swept into power in 2015 promising "real change" in the form of several progressive pledges.
In addition to his scandals, Mr Trudeau has faced criticism for his ability to follow through on those pledges including on the environment, a record that was undercut because he came out in support of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project.
He also abandoned a federal electoral reform plan, which was a favourite of left-leaning voters.
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Congratulatory tweets for Mr Trudeau have started coming in from world leaders this morning.
Here are some messages from the leaders of Ireland, Spain and Australia:
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) has slightly revised their results projection, adding one more seat for the Liberal Party.
With two seats left to be called, the current projection is:
Liberal Party: 157
Conservative Party: 121
BQ: 32
NDP: 24
Green: 3
Independent: 1
That change puts Mr Trudeau’s party a little bit closer to a majority but still short of the 170 seats they needed.
What does the success of the Quebec separatist party Bloc Quebecois (BQ) mean for Canadian politics?
Under the leadership of Yves-Francois Blanchet, BQ has jumped from 10 seats to 32 in the predominantly French-speaking province, helping to deny Mr Trudeau a majority in parliament.
However, they are unlikely to be kingmakers as the Liberals are expected to govern with the left-wing NDP.
Mr Blanchet has succeeded in part by playing down talks of separatism and presenting BQ as a party that will represent Quebec’s interests, rather than break up Canada.
Pierre Martin, a professor at the University of Montreal, explained Mr Blanchet’s appeal:
“The strength Blanchet brings is he projects an image that is not quite as hardcore as the previous leaders. That allows him to draw on a much wider slice of the electorate.”
The BQ leader has said his party wants to work with parliament and will support any proposed legislation that they believe is good for Quebec.
Additional reporting by Reuters
Campbell Clark, the chief political writer for one of Canada’s most influential papers, says the NDP are the “obvious choice” for Mr Trudeau’s partners in government.
The Globe and Mail writer said:
“The NDP and Jagmeet Singh [their leader] have actually been weakened in this election…
“They’re not as strong, they’re going to be short on money and so they will probably want to prop up a minority government for a while.”
However, the NDP will have some demands for supporting Mr Trudeau’s government, with pharmacare – a system in which the government helps to pay for Canadians’ prescription drugs – being a likely price for support.
Mr Clark added that other political pressures on Mr Trudeau, such as the rise of Quebec separatists, could complicate those plans.
Jeremy Wildeman, a research associate for the University of Bath, has described the election result as “a struggle that caught the world by surprise”.
Writing for the Conversation Canada, Mr Wildeman has said Canadian progressives expected Mr Trudeau to lose seats and picked out two political events that damaged his support.
First, there was his government’s purchase of the Trans Mountain pipeline from the US-based corporation Kinder Morgan, which angered environmentalists and the First Nations communities affected by the decision.
Second, there was the SNC-Lavalin scandal, in which Mr Trudeau was accused of political interference with the justice system.
Mr Wildeman concluded:
“Though Trudeau’s struggles may seem surprising, the inability of his government to truly address deep structural inequalities and income insecurity in Canada fits a pattern of the fracturing of the political landscape of nearly every other liberal democracy. This plagued Obama’s administration as well.
“Having a family name and background that symbolises privilege, in a world where wealth inequality and nepotism have become such divisive topics, hasn’t helped Trudeau.”
The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation has said voters should expect “an unruly House of Commons divided along regional fault lines” in the coming months.
Chris Hall, the CBC’s national affairs editor, wrote:
“There is no escaping the fact that this is a country divided. Trudeau couldn't ignore it even in his victory speech, which directly addressed voters in the Prairies and Quebec; Trudeau assured them he had heard their message, without suggesting how it might influence his decisions.
“But it's not only a regional divide. The Liberals' support is overwhelmingly in urban centres and their suburbs. For the Liberals, winning this election was hard — but governing might turn out to be harder.”
The pessimistic conclusion is that “For now, common ground remains elusive”, but Mr Hall has noted climate change and universal pharmacare as issues that could possibly unite a minority government.
There is still no news from the last two seats to be called - although we know that the Liberal Party are expected to take both of them.
If those predictions are correct, the Liberals will be 13 seats short of a majority.
The projected final result is below:
Although the election result may have been underwhelming for many Canadians, the night did see one notable moment when the leaders of three major parties had their speeches at the same time in an incredibly awkward piece of scheduling.
One anchor described Mr Trudeau’s decision to speak at the same time as his rival Andrew Scheer as “unprecedented”, with some commentators interpreting it as a show of disrespect.
CBC News was left struggling to decide who to focus on…
Boris Johnson, the UK’s prime minister, has commented on the Liberal Party’s victory by congratulating Mr Trudeau and saying he is looking forward to working with Canada on supporting girls’ education and climate change initiatives.
The Independent’s Brad Hunter has a report from Toronto this morning on how Canada’s “progressive prince” clung on to power after a bruising election campaign.
Mr Hunter has noted that Mr Trudeau’s minority government could be fairly long-lasting, if only because there is no appetite for another election.
He said:
“Neither Canadians nor their politicians are ready for another round at the voting booth, but both of the main parties emerged from the previous 40 days with a little less dignity.”
You can read the full piece below:
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