Desperate Tories warn Sunak they are headed for disaster after ‘appalling’ by-elections: ‘The party’s over’

Conservatives are ‘going to lose a hell of a lot of seats’, admits one MP – despite Rishi Sunak’s claim that a Labour general election victory is ‘not a done deal’

Rishi Sunak has been warned by his party that the Conservatives are heading for a disastrous general election defeat – as “desperate” Tory MPs called for urgent changes to be made in an effort to halt Sir Keir Starmer’s path to No 10.

As Labour overturned a 20,000 majority in a historic by-election victory while the Liberal Democrats took another safe Tory seat, a former Conservative cabinet minister told The Independent: “The party’s over.”

Sir Keir seized on the victory to declare that Labour was on course for power, as Mr Sunak was forced to insist that the next election was “not a done deal”.

One long-serving Tory MP admitted the results showed that voters were “p***ed off with us” over the spiralling interest-rates crisis, and that Labour would “easily” win if a general election were held imminently.

Another, Nigel Mills, warned that the Tories were “going to lose a hell of a lot of seats”, while former justice secretary David Gauke said most Conservative MPs would be “terrified” by the “appalling” results.

Leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice also warned that the party was in a “deep hole” electorally, despite a surprise victory in Uxbridge – where the party clung on by 495 votes thanks to local anger about Sadiq Khan’s planned Ulez expansion.

It came as:

• Tory MPs including Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg pressed the PM to ditch “high-cost green policies”, such as the ban on new petrol cars from 2030, after the London mayor’s plan to expand the ultra-low-emission zone cost Labour a seat
• Party tensions erupted in public as Sir Keir warned Mr Khan to “reflect” on the electoral cost of his scheme

• Prof Curtice, speaking about the result in Selby and Ainsty, told The Independent: “Never before in a by-election have the Conservatives lost so safe a seat to Labour.”

Another Tory MP said the loss of such safe seats would “really send the jitters” through his colleagues in the parliamentary party, while a former cabinet minister told The Independent that the huge swing away from the party showed that Sir Keir was now on course to win the keys to No 10. Another former Tory minister said it was clear that Labour would win the 2024 election. “That’s obvious from the numbers,” they added.

Tory MP Andrea Jenkyns, a loyal supporter of Boris Johnson, suggested that Mr Sunak would have to “rethink” his policies or face defeat at the general election. She described the results as a “wake-up call”, urging the PM to “return to Conservative policies” by pushing further on illegal migration, and to “stop this net-zero push that just financially burdens the British taxpayer”.

One former cabinet minister told The Independent that Mr Sunak had to have a better message than just “Labour would be worse.” And another minister said that the party’s narrative about why the public should vote Tory “has got to change”. “We need to be in a position where we can make a good retail offer at the election,” they said. “To do that, we have to show progress on the [prime minister’s] five pledges [which include halving inflation and stopping small-boat crossings]. But it is hard to think what that [progress] will be.”

They ruled out the idea of scrapping inheritance tax, however, describing it as “the right policy at the wrong time”, and adding: “We need to wean ourselves off big government.”

It came as staunch supporters of Mr Johnson, including Sir Jacob, called on Mr Sunak to ditch “high-cost green policies” after Labour failed to take Uxbridge. Craig Mackinlay, the Tory chair of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group, also said that his party had to scrap the ban on new petrol cars being sold after 2030.

Rishi Sunak celebrates the Uxbridge win in a local cafe (via Reuters)

Mr Mills, the Tory MP for Amber Valley in Derbyshire, told The Independent that the Selby result was “clearly not good” and meant that “red wall” colleagues across the North and Midlands would worry about losing their seats.

“It reinforces that we’re in a really difficult position. Nobody is in any doubt we have a battle in our hands. If you lose a 20,000 majority, and the opposition poll 20 points ahead of you, then you’re going to lose a hell of a lot of seats,” he said.

But Mr Mills said that Tory MPs had taken comfort from the Ulez-related Uxbridge win. “It suggests that if we find the right message, people will give us a hearing,” he said, adding: “It’s a warning to politicians that we have to bring people with us [on net zero] – we can’t push things that cost people in a way they can’t afford.”

Sunak with newly elected Conservative MP Steve Tuckwell (PA Wire)

Other Conservative MPs were more upbeat. Senior Tory Robert Buckland told The Independent: “Selby is a bad result, but the idea that it’s a harbinger of a Labour landslide is for the birds. It’s not too late for us – I don’t sense that we’re in a 1996 moment.”

The former justice secretary added: “Uxbridge is a very significant result. It shows Labour is not inspiring enthusiasm and they can be derailed by difficult issues. I wouldn’t be smoking the proverbial cigar if I was them.”

Sir Jacob, a staunch supporter of Mr Johnson, called on Mr Sunak to ditch “high-cost green policies” after the surprise win in Uxbridge, which is believed to have been a result of frustration at the planned expansion of the £12.50-a-day low-emissions charge. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “High-cost green policies are not popular.”

Former Brexit minister David Frost said the lesson was that “green policies are very unpopular when there’s a direct cost to people”. While Labour suffered this time, the right-winger warned that “soon it could be us unless we rethink heat pumps and the 2030 electric car deadline”.

Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner celebrate with new MP Keir Mather in Selby (PA Wire)

But one former Tory minister, loyal to Mr Sunak, dismissed the idea of watering down net zero policies – saying it was just the right of the party “making noise”.

And Mr Buckland said Mr Sunak should “set out where he wants to take the country in the next five years” – warning the PM not to listen to any “glib solutions” on small boats or “go soft” on net zero policies, though green schemes had to be “fair” to hard-pressed families.

Speaking to reporters in a cafe in Uxbridge, Mr Sunak said the Tories’ surprise victory in the seat showed that the general election result was not “a done deal” as he vowed that his party would “double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people”.

But polling guru Prof Curtice said that, looked at together, the results of the three by-elections were very bad news for the Tories. Across the three seats contested, the Tory vote was down 21 percentage points – comparable to the dire national polling for Mr Sunak’s party.

“Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us,” Prof Curtice told the Today programme.

Luke Tryl, UK director of the More in Common group, said the scale of Labour’s win in Selby was more important than the “expectations-game win” of Uxbridge. The public opinion expert said: “You’d far rather be Keir Starmer than Rishi Sunak right now.”

Mr Tryl said the big question was whether Uxbridge was “totally unique” or indicated that a disciplined and wedge-issue-focused Tory campaign could erode an “unenthusiastic Labour lead”.

Other Sunak-supporting MPs were keen to talk up the “stunning” result in Uxbridge. Tory MP David Simmonds said it raised “serious questions” for Sir Keir. “Labour went in with a 40 per cent lead in the opinion polls, and it has come out as a Conservative hold,” he told The Independent.

New Liberal Democrat MP Sarah Dyke with party leader Ed Davey in Frome (PA Wire)

Tory peer Lord Hayward told The Independent that the shock result in Uxbridge means there is “no certainty” yet that Labour will triumph in the next election, despite “massive” swings elsewhere and the opposition party’s 20-point lead in the polls.

Former Tory chancellor George Osborne said the results in Selby and Somerton were “dire”, but added that the Uxbridge outcome “has given the Tories something very precious, that they didn’t have yesterday – hope”.

Tory chair Greg Hands said the party’s win in Uxbridge had “surprised everybody” and that the result shows “the electorate don’t like Labour being in power and running things badly”.

Mr Hands told the Today programme that Labour’s struggle with Ulez showed it had failed to “go with the grain of human nature” when it came to changes aimed at tackling climate change.

The Tory chair insisted that the Tories would not now oppose what David Cameron used to “green crap” – but he refused to say whether it was an opportunity for the party to change tack on the environment and green taxes.