Tories still in ‘deep electoral trouble’ despite Uxbridge win, says John Curtice

Rishi Sunak’s party has ‘awful long way to go’ to show they can cling onto power, says polling guru

The Conservatives remain in “deep electoral trouble” despite Rishi Sunak’s relief at clinging on to Boris Johnson’s old seat in Uxbridge, said polling guru Prof John Curtice.

Prof Curtice said the overwhelming defeats to Labour in Selby and the Liberal Democrats in Somerton and Frome were a “better guide” for the mood in the country.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “Taken in the round, these by-election results do suggest that the Conservatives remain in deep electoral trouble, as the opinion polls have been telling us.”

Across the three seats contested, the Tory vote was down 21 percentage points – comparable to the national polling, Prof Curtice said.

“Although Uxbridge will provide Rishi Sunak with some immediate cover ... in the end the message from these by-elections is that the Conservatives are indeed in considerable electoral trouble along the lines that the polls are suggesting,” he said.

Labour overturning a 20,000 majority to win Selby and Ainsty – a record win for the party – while the Lib Dems transformed a 19,000 Tory majority in Somerton and Frome into a 11,00-vote cushion.

Mr Sunak was spared the prospect of being the first PM since 1968 to lose three by-elections on the same day as the Tories defeating Labour by just 495 votes – with both parties pointing to Sadiq Khan’s unpopular Ulez scheme expansion as the reason.

But Prof Curtice said the Tories “still have an awful long way to go before they look as if they might have a chance of being able to retain power”. He added: “Both our two biggest party leaders have been left with something to think about.”

Prof Curtice said Labour must ask why its hold on voters is “apparently so weak” that when a local issue like the Ulez ultra low emission zone in Uxbridge comes up they “don’t perform as they should”.

The results in Selby and Somerton will have many Tory MPs looking nervously at their own seat – but there was a mood of defiance after the unexpected win in Uxbridge.

Mr Sunak said the Tories’ by-election victory in Uxbridge shows the next general election is not “a done deal” and vowed to “double down, stick to our plan and deliver for people”.

Speaking at a cafe in Mr Johnson’s former west London seat, the PM said: “Westminster’s been acting like the next election is a done deal. The Labour Party has been acting like it’s a done deal. The people of Uxbridge just told all of them that it’s not.”

Former Tory cabinet minister Robert Buckland clashed with Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire on the BBC. “You’re just learning how to do opposition – you’re nowhere near ready for government. Nowhere near, nowhere near.”

Senior Tory MP Johnny Mercer tried to downplay the importance of Selby result by mocking the new 25-year-old Labour MP Keir Mather and comparing him to the teen sitcom The Inbetweeners.

“We mustn’t become a repeat of The Inbetweeners, right?” the veterans minister told Sky News. “This guy has been at Oxford University more than he’s been in a job. You put a chip in him and he just relates Labour lines. People have had enough of that, right?”

Tory MP Steve Tuckwell said Sadiq Khan helped him win in Uxbridge (Getty Images)

But Sir Keir Starmer hailed Labour’s victory by more than 4,000 votes the North Yorkshire seat, the highest majority the party had ever overturned in a by-election – insisting that it showed “demand for change” among the electorate.

Despite Labour’s success in North Yorkshire, the failure to secure victory in Uxbridge has led to a blame game among senior figures over mayor Sadiq Khan’s plan to expand the ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) to cover outer boroughs.

Labour candidate Danny Beales had distanced himself from the policy, saying it was “not the right time”. And new Tory MP for the area Steve Tuckwell said Mr Khan had cost Labour. “It was his damaging and costly Ulez policy that lost them this election.”

A source close to Mr Khan played down the significance of the result, telling The Independent: “Sadiq has always been clear that expanding the ULEZ was a really difficult decision, but necessary to save the lives of young and vulnerable Londoners.

“Winning Uxbridge and South Ruislip was always going to be a struggle for Labour. Labour hasn’t won this seat for five decades and Tony Blair didn’t even win it during the 1997 landslide.”

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said his party was now back in its former West Country stronghold after an overwhelming win the Somerton and Frome.

And Sarah Dyke, the new MP for the area after winning by more than 11,000 and taking more than 50 per cent of vote share, hailed the use of tactical voting.

She thanked Labour and Green voters for “lending” her their votes. “There is no doubt that our electoral system is broken, but you have shown that the Conservatives can still be beaten under it.”