UK politics - live: Reform level with Labour in new poll as Treasury responds to gloomy economy update
New poll by FindOutNowUK marks a fresh political blow for Sir Keir Starmer who has overseen a rocky start to his leadership of the country
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Your support makes all the difference.Sir Keir Starmer has been dealt a further blow with a new poll predicting Labour would lose its overall majority if an election was held now.
The poll by FindOutNowUK has put Reform level pegging with Labour on 25 per cent and the Tories five points behind on 20 per cent. According to the calculations, if the result was repeated in a general election Labour would lose 173 seats but remain the largest party on 238.
Reform would leap into second place from the five MPs to 170, taking deputy prime minister Angela Rayner and shadow foreign secretary Priti Patel’s seats. The Tories would be left with just 89 seats and a viable government could only be formed with a deal between Labour and the Lib Dems on 70 seats and SNP on 42.
The poll, which comes after a survey by think tank More in Common that also found Labour would lose its majority, marks a fresh political blow for Sir Keir who has overseen a rocky start to his leadership of the country.
There are also fears over the economy with the pound plunging to its lowest level for over a year after a rout in the bond markets. And with government borrowing costs also increasing, Treasury minister Darren Jones has warned that “public services will have to live within their means”.
Ed Davey calls on Reeves to cancel China trip to focus on cancelling NI hike and rebuild with EU
Liberal Democrat Leader Ed Davey has called on the Chancellor to cancel her trip to China and instead make an emergency fiscal statement to Parliament cancelling the national insurance hike planned for April, to boost economic growth and bring interest rates down.
Mr Davey said: “Instead of jetting off to China, the Chancellor should urgently come before the House of Commons to cancel her counterproductive jobs tax and set out a real plan for growth.
“The country is paying an ever-higher price for the total mess the Conservative Party made of our economy, and the Chancellor needs to realise that she’ll never dig us out of this hole without a far more ambitious plan to grow our economy, including rebuilding trade with Europe.
“The Government’s misguided jobs tax is hurting businesses and hitting investment badly, meaning it will hold back growth while failing to raise the funding the Chancellor claims for the NHS.
“The Chancellor should look instead at our plans to raise revenue without hitting jobs and growth, by raising taxes on the profits of the big banks, social media giants and online gambling firms – all of which are making eye-watering profits while ordinary families struggle.”
Jess Phillips sys she has not lost her ‘gumption’ after Musk attacks
Jess Phillips has said MPs can jump on the bandwagon of combating grooming gangs and child sexual exploitation – but “it is action that is needed”.
In an off-the-cuff speech, the safeguarding minister argued there was a lack of “actual fundamental change on the ground” when the Conservatives were in power and said accepting recommendations does not change people’s lives.
Ms Phillips also told the Commons she has not lost her “gumption” despite US billionaire Elon Musk describing her as a “rape genocide apologist” after she declined a request from Oldham Council for a Whitehall-led inquiry into child sexual abuse in the town.
In a reference to Mr Musk’s tweet, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said Ms Phillips and others received threats as a result of the “poison of the far right”.
Many MPs spoke out in support of Ms Phillips during a debate on violence against women and girls, including Conservative former minister Dame Karen Bradley, who said she had “immense sympathy for what she is going through”.
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Shadow minister tells farmers: Labour is ‘coming after you and your way of life’
Reacting to Environment Secretary Steve Reed’s speech, shadow secretary Victoria Atkins said: “So far, all Labour has done for farmers is introduce the vindictive family farm tax that threatens to destroy family farming as we know it; hike national insurance that will slash jobs and rural businesses; remove the capital grants that farmers rely on to grow their businesses; and speed up cuts to farming payments.
“The only guarantee Labour offers to farmers is that they’re coming after you and your way of life.
“In government, the Conservatives introduced the Agriculture Act, which set out a framework to support farmers including through fairness in supply chains.
“We also introduced a legislative commitment to the UK Food Security Report. Labour voted against these measures then, so are not to be trusted now. The Conservatives will stand up for farmers and our rural communities.”
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Government plan to reduce VAWG is not ambitious enough, Shadow minister says
Shadow equalities minister Mims Davies said the Government should be more ambitious in its aims for tackling violence against women and girls, calling for it to be eliminated completely.
Responding to Alex Davies-Jones from the Conservative frontbench, Ms Davies said: “I do appreciate the focus on halving violence against women and girls, that’s not enough.
“Let’s focus on pure eradication. And that is one thing that all sides of this house can agree on.”
Ms Davies added: “There are women and girls in our communities who want to know that we are here with the focus of keeping them safe.
“And when it comes to domestic abuse or any kind of criminality, when it comes to women and girls in our community, criminality is criminality, where ever it is found, and domestic abuse wherever it is must continue to be tackled, it cannot remain untackled, it must always be uncovered.”
Angela Rayner says she would challenge Elon Musk on ‘factual basis’ of his claims
Angela Rayner has said she would meet with Elon Musk and challenge him on the “factual basis” of his recent social media attacks against the Government.
Asked whether she would meet with Mr Musk, the Deputy Prime Minister said: “I would meet with Elon Musk, yeah, of course I would and I would challenge him on a factual basis.
“I think we all have a responsibility to make sure that we work on facts, and, you know, as politicians, we have to correct the record if we’re incorrect.
“I think that there is a responsibility if you’re using your wealth and your platform in that way to make sure that all those facts are correct, because otherwise there’s real consequences.
“We’ve seen this in real time on the number of incidents where people have been factually incorrect and it’s led to really serious outcomes.”
She added: “So, therefore, I say to anyone who’s got a platform, a significant platform, have a responsibility to make sure that they’re factually correct, and when they’re not correct they should be correcting the record as soon as possible.”
The scale of violence against women and girls is a national emergency, minister says
The extent of violence against women and girls is “intolerable”, a Government minister has said, as she branded the problem a national emergency.
Justice minister Alex Davies-Jones said women had been let down by the system and that women and girls should be free to live their lives without violence, abuse and harassment.
She said: “The scale of violence against women in this country is intolerable, a national emergency, so I welcome the opportunity for this house to unite and debate it today.
“Tackling violence against women and girls in all its forms is a top priority for this Government, and central to our wider mission to make this country’s streets safer.”
Ms Davies-Jones went on condemn threats against her ministerial colleague Jess Phillips. “They are absolutely abhorrent,” she said. “They demonstrate all too clearly the way that some men view women’s place in the world.”
She added: “We will continue to speak out, we will not be silenced.”
Calls for internet pornography that ‘dehumanises’ women to be regulated
Online pornography should be regulated in the same way as offline material, a Conservative MP has said.
Rebecca Paul warned about the impact of internet pornography, warning that content often contains “harmful, degrading and violent imagery that dehumanises women”.
“This material has become mainstream, though it bears little resemblance to real sex or what goes on in genuinely loving relationships,” she said. “Worryingly, in these videos women are typically shown responding neutrally when on the receiving end of this aggression, or even with pleasure.
“Make no mistake, this content reinforces the idea that women desire and derive pleasure from violence, and ultimately perpetuates rape culture.”
The Reigate MP said she believes online platforms should be required to verify that every person in a pornographic video is an adult, and gave permission for the video to be uploaded.
Previous poll suggested Labour would lose nearly 200 seats if election was held in December
The FindOutNowUK prediction (2.21pm post) is not the first time a poll has predicted dire conditions for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
At the end of 2024, the first major seat-by-seat analysis following the general election found Labour would lose its majority and nearly 200 seats in the Commons.
The MRP polling from think tank More in Common found Labour would lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP.
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