Should Keir Starmer panic as poll suggests Labour could lose 200 seats?

Archie Mitchell asks whether the prime minister should be worried by a new poll that suggested significant possible seat losses if a general election was held today – and what he should do next

A poll has suggested Labour could lose nearly 200 seats if a general election was held today, which could see Sir Keir Starmer lose his deputy Angela Rayner and home secretary Yvette Cooper.

The More in Common survey pointed to Labour losing its majority, a dramatic turnaround from the historic general election win it achieved in July.

Labour, which won a landslide victory in the general election, could lose 87 seats to the Conservatives, 67 to Reform UK, and 26 to the SNP, the polling from think tank More in Common found.

The PM needs to convince voters that Labour has their best interests at heart (EPA)

But despite the stark warning, it is only one survey – and there are years before the country goes to the polls again.

Should he be worried?

Sir Keir has suffered the biggest collapse in approval ratings of any prime minister after winning an election in modern history, he cannot ignore that.

The prime minister has come under fire for early decisions to scrap winter fuel payments for millions of pensioners, release thousands of prisoners early, and his acceptance of free clothes, glasses and concert tickets.

He has argued early policy changes and Rachel Reeves’s October Budget were necessary to “wipe the slate clean” after years of the Conservatives mismanaging the public finances.

Labour backers hope restoring order to the public finances will attract investment in the UK and boost growth, ensuring voters feel better off by the time of the election.

But, with inflation proving stickier than the PM would have hoped, and the economy flatlining in the first three months of Labour’s term, the clock is ticking for Sir Keir to meaningfully improve people’s living standards.

As well as voters returning to the Tories, Labour faces a challenge from Nigel Farage’s Reform UK (PA)

More in Common associate director Ed Hodgson said Labour could plough on and pay little attention to the poll, given how far away the next general election is. But doing so “would be unwise”, he added.

Mr Hodgson added: “This poll shows not just how many of Labour’s new voters are deeply unsatisfied with the government’s performance to date, but that they are leaving the party in all directions leaving Labour uniquely electorally exposed.

“If it’s to be in with a chance of turning its fortunes around, the government will have to deliver for Scottish voters tempted back to the SNP, English and Welsh voters tempted by Reform, and urban voters tempted by the Greens and Independents.”

What does he need to do?

A repeated criticism of the PM is that his persona and managerial style make it impossible to tell a story about what the point of his government is.

So while Sir Keir needs to pull out all the stops to get the economy firing, he also needs to convince voters that Labour has their best interests at heart.

As well as voters potentially returning to the Tories, Sir Keir faces a growing headache with the rise of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which has ridden a wave of discontent with the government to pull almost neck and neck with the Conservatives in some polls.

Sir Keir hopes that if voters feel better off by the time the election comes, which could be as late as 2029, they will give him the benefit of the doubt and vote Labour back in.

But even tangible improvements in living standards, after more than a decade of near-stagnant household disposable income, may not be enough.

Sir Keir will need a powerful narrative – one which at present he desperately lacks – to tempt voters away from Reform, turn his poll ratings around, and avoid the fate predicted in the bombshell poll.