What is Rishi’s recession and the fiscal ‘time bomb’ that awaits Labour?

With a nation of voters who have already decided, Sunak and Hunt have given up on winning the next election, writes Sean O’Grady. Instead, they are setting things up for Labour to fail

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will deliver his next Budget on 6 March (PA)

Britain is in recession. Though hardly a shock, the bald headline and the facts that lie behind it certainly have a sobering effect and won’t help to maintain business and consumer confidence. It’s a mild recession by historical standards, and much of the West is in a similar kind of position. The relative performance of the British economy has been unsatisfactory for many years, and such growth as there has been is due to population increase and net migration, whereas much of the downward pressure on economic activity, especially investment and international trade, has been down to Brexit. In any case, whatever the reasons, the economic effects are being felt across the country and, before long, the political consequences of a weak economy will make themselves known...

What is the electoral impact?

Bad for the government, obviously. It goes against the “growth” narrative that ministers constantly push and feels like the prime minister has failed to deliver another of his promises. The downbeat media coverage will also affect the voters’ mood, as will the economic consequences of a stagnant economy – less room for pay rises, mortgages staying higher, property prices more depressed than otherwise and less cash for tax cuts or public spending. The “feel good factor” is dangerously absent in an election year: Tories certainly can’t deploy their traditional slogan of “Britain is booming – don’t let Labour ruin it!”. Instead, they have to “stick to the plan or go back to square one”, which is at best opaque and at worst makes a return to how things were in 2010 feel quite appealing.