Why Republicans will be getting more concerned about the midterm elections

A rising approval rating for Joe Biden, along with some movement on the economic front, is not working in the GOP’s favour, writes Chris Stevenson

Republicans are keen to retake control of the House of Representatives in November’s elections (AP)

The Republican Party has long been favoured by political analysts to retake control of the House of Representatives in the congressional midterm elections in November – but there is a growing conversation about the potential for the Democrats to minimise the number of seats they lose, which could leave the GOP with a problem.

The fact that the party in opposition has historically tended to do well in a midterm cycle, particularly when the sitting president’s approval ratings have been languishing for as long as Joe Biden’s have, led many to suggest not so long ago that there could be a “red wave” of seat gains. And some Republicans were talking bullishly about their prospects.

However, there have been some policy successes for Biden in recent weeks – including the passing of a sweeping domestic spending plan – and there has also been positive news about the economy, with prices falling at the pump for those who own cars, a better-than-expected US jobs report, and a small amount of movement in the inflation rate. These events have seen his approval rating move from a record (Gallup) low of 38 per cent in July to 44 per cent in August. This represents the highest mark for the president in a year.

While 53 per cent of Americans still disapprove of the job Biden is doing overall, the White House will be buoyed by his improved performance among political independents, whose approval of the president rose from 31 per cent last month to the current 40 per cent. Support for Biden among Democrats (81 per cent) and Republicans (4 per cent) has not changed significantly since July.

The current polling was carried out by Gallup before the recent announcement by the White House of a student loan “forgiveness” plan, which has the potential to reduce debt for millions of younger Americans; this may move the needle of public opinion even further.

Added to these developments are the problems the Republicans are facing in respect of their candidates in certain states, whose support for Trump’s false claims about the 2020 election have seen the GOP’s poll ratings slide in favour of the Democrats. Further, Democrats have outperformed Biden’s 2020 election margins in four special elections held since the Supreme Court overturned the landmark Roe v Wade judgment in June, with Democrat Pat Ryan making abortion rights a key part of his winning campaign in the most recent of these special elections, held in New York’s 19th congressional district earlier this month.

It is unsurprising, perhaps, that some are looking on with concern.

“I expect a narrow majority for the GOP that may not be all that much greater than what Pelosi [Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic leader of the House] has today,” representative Fred Upton, a Michigan Republican who is retiring at the end of the year, told CNN. “Will be very hard to have any sense of a governing majority.”

It is the last part of that quote that will be most concerning to the Republican leadership. They have been in a strong position so far, and will want to convert that into as many seat gains as they can come November.