Mitch McConnell has laid bare the Republicans’ candidate problem

The party has issues over picks to run for the Senate in some states – and Donald Trump has a lot to answer for over it, writes Chris Stevenson

The highest-ranking Republican in the Senate, Mitch McConnell (Getty Images)

In the past few days, Mitch McConnell, the leading Republican in the Senate, has articulated a problem that could come back to bite the GOP in November’s midterm elections.

“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate. Senate races are just different – they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome,” he said at a Northern Kentucky Chamber of Commerce luncheon early this week when asked about his party’s prospects.

“Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.”

The most important words in that quote? “Candidate quality.” In terms of pure numbers, with the Republicans needing a net gain of just one seat – as McConnell points out – the task of taking control of the upper chamber of Congress would appear easier on paper. Particularly as the party in opposition during the midterm cycle has historically done better than the incumbent party. But as it stands, at least according to a forecast from analysts FiveThirtyEight, the Democrats are slight favourites to take the Senate.

So what is happening? Well, former president Donald Trump has certainly had an impact – endorsing candidates that will more than likely have factored into McConnell’s arch use of the word “quality”.

Races in Wisconsin and Arizona highlight this. President Joe Biden won both states by less than a percentage point in 2020, with both states having voted for Trump in 2016. Biden’s favourability ratings in both states are also not great. However, Senator Mark Kelly in Arizona and Lt Gov Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin are leading in the polls for their respective Senate races as their Republican rivals are doing little to bring voters to their side. The net favourability rating for Blake Masters (Arizona) was -4 points, while Senator Ron Johnson (Wisconsin) was at -6 and -9 points in recent Fox News and Marquette polls. Both Democratic candidates had net positive ratings.

Masters is a big supporter of Trump, while Johnson has also been – although his campaign has sought to try and get some distance between Johnson and the former president in recent days, with the candidate saying the Senate race is “about Wisconsin” and side-stepping questions about Trump.

No wonder McConnell is trying to downplay expectations – in some states, the GOP definitely have a candidate problem.