Labour warned poll lead more fragile than it seems as Tory unpopularity ‘not enough’ to win election

Keir Starmer warned not to be complacent on eve of Labour conference

Sir Keir Starmer has been warned his commanding poll lead is more fragile than it seems, as Labour grandees urge the party to put forward a bolder vision for Britain.

The Labour leader has been told by polling guru Sir John Curtice his successes are the result of Tory incompetence rather than his own political savvy.

And former home secretary David Blunkett has urged Sir Keir to learn the lesson from Labour’s past election losses, saying that Tory unpopularity is “not enough” to secure an election win.

It follows the Labour leader hailing a “seismic” victory in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, and comes on the eve of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, at which the party is unveiling its new slogan: “Let’s get Britain’s future back.”

Sir Keir is hoping to use the conference to set out why voters should back his party, as opposed to simply voting against the deeply unpopular Conservatives.

One shadow minister said the biggest thing they are looking for at the conference is Sir Keir setting out "an inspirational vision for the country".

They said Labour needs to "give people hope" after years of deteriorating living standards under the Conservatives.

"I want people to want to vote for Labour not just vote against the Tories," they told The Independent.

A poll by 38 Degrees, seen by The Observer, shows Labour is on course to win a landslide 190-seat majority, bigger than Tony Blair’s 1997 victory. The party would win 420 seats, with the Tories taking just 149 seats and the Liberal Democrats on 23.

The poll also shows Rishi Sunak’s party is set to lose every so-called red wall seat won by Boris Johnson in 2019, while it is on course to lose a further 22 so-called blue wall southern seats.

But, writing for The Independent, Sir John said Labour may simply be “the lucky beneficiary of its opponents’ mistakes”.

He said: “Voters have been pushed towards Labour by the Conservatives’ failures rather than pulled towards it by positive enthusiasm for the party’s own offering.”

And Sir John said the Labour leader has been “remarkably unsuccessful at impressing himself on voters”. The elections expert said Labour is plagued by a lack of clarity, question marks about competence and a relatively unpopular leader.

“Should Mr Sunak prove able to turn his government around, Labour might suddenly find that their seemingly impregnable large lead is in fact rather fragile,” Sir John added.

Also writing for The Independent, Lord Blunkett said his party cannot make the mistake of believing the Tories are “out for the count”, despite holding a sizeable lead in the polls.

He said it would be “inane” for Sir Keir and Rachel Reeves to ignore the lessons of past election defeats, such as Neil Kinnock’s in 1992.

Lord Blunkett said: “When people ask me whether this is a 1992 moment (when Labour lost) or a 1997 moment (when Labour won a landslide under Tony Blair), my answer is: neither.

“What Labour is faced with is more like 1964. The Conservatives had experienced a torrid time, including the Profumo Affair.

“This was accompanied by the ‘Night of the Long Knives’ when a third of the cabinet was sacked. Conservative leader Harold Macmillan then became ill, and Alec Douglas Home took over – a true, old-fashioned Tory toff who, by his own admissions, did his economic calculations with matchsticks.

“Harold Wilson, the Labour leader managed to win, but only by four parliamentary seats.”

Lord Blunkett said the “prudence” of Sir Keir and Ms Reeves is understandable, but called for Labour to spend the next year setting out a positive vision for the party.

His comments come after Labour grandees including  Alastair Campbell, Peter Mandelson and David Miliband called for Sir Keir to set out a clearer policy platform to win voters’ trust.

Mr Campbell, Tony Blair’s former director of communications, told The Guardian: “I sometimes worry that the Labour party today doesn’t. I don’t often get that sense of that sort of relentless, restless, obsessive attention to detail focusing on everything that you need to focus on.”