Starmer is unpopular and unsuccessful: If Sunak gets his act together Labour’s poll lead could vanish

Labour’s success may be more the result of Tory incompetence than its own political savvy, writes polling guru John Curtice. Should Rishi Sunak prove able to turn his government around, Keir Starmer might suddenly find that his seemingly impregnable large lead is in fact rather fragile

Despite his party’s poll lead, Starmer has been unsuccessful at impressing himself on voters (PA)

Labour begin their conference this weekend in Liverpool with plenty to celebrate. On average, the polls put the party 17 points ahead of the Conservatives, a figure that has changed little since Mr Sunak became prime minister a year ago and more than enough to win an overall Commons majority. Meanwhile, on Thursday a spectacular gain in Rutherglen holds out the promise of ending the SNP’s dominance of Scotland’s representation at Westminster, thereby increasing the party’s chances of securing that Commons majority.

Unsurprisingly, Labour wish to claim the credit for the position in which it finds itself. It argues that lost voters have returned to the fold because Sir Keir Starmer has moved his party towards the centre, distancing it from the tenure of his left-wing predecessor, Jeremy Corbyn. At the same time, the party’s relative silence on Brexit has helped it connect with the red wall of working-class Leave voters.

However, there is an alternative interpretation. This argues the party is primarily the lucky beneficiary of its opponents’ mistakes. Voters have been pushed towards Labour by the Conservatives’ failures rather than pulled towards it by positive enthusiasm for the party’s own offering. After all, Labour only pulled ahead of the Conservatives for the first time in this parliament following the exposure of Partygate, and has only looked on course for a Commons majority since Liz Truss’s fiscal event.

Sir Keir has changed Labour’s image. Shortly before he became leader, as many as 41 per cent told YouGov they thought Labour was “extreme”, while only 25 per cent said it was “moderate”. Now only 17 per cent feel it is extreme, while as many as 43 per cent reckon it is now moderate. The trend has been a gradual one over the course of this parliament, and not obviously a consequence of the Conservatives’ difficulties. It may well have helped Labour look like an acceptable alternative to a seemingly failing incumbent government.

Yet evidence that the party is positively attracting voters is otherwise surprisingly thin. To begin with, many voters are unclear what Labour and Sir Keir stand for. According to Ipsos, 50 per cent do not know what the Labour leader stands for – much higher than the 33 per cent who held that view of Ed Miliband shortly before the 2015 general election. Even among those who are currently backing Labour, as many as one in three share that view.

Meanwhile, a YouGov poll this week found that less than one in four (22 per cent) of all voters feel that the Labour leader has a clear plan for the country, while even among Labour supporters less than half (47 per cent) feel he does. Equally earlier this year, Omnisis reported that for the most part only a half of those who would now vote Labour feel they know what Labour stands for on any particular issue.

There are also question marks over Labour’s competence. According to YouGov, only 26 per cent feel that Labour are “competent”, little changed from the position in the initial months of Sir Keir’s leadership. In its most recent poll, 34 per cent told Ipsos that Labour were “fit to govern” – less than the 40 per cent who did so before Labour lost the 2015 election. The same poll also reported that 38 per cent reckon that Labour are ready to form the next government – well short of the 55 per cent who held that view in 1997.

True, YouGov’s data shows that the proportion who think Labour is ready for government has increased from 18 per cent two years ago to 33 per cent now. However, much of that improvement occurred in the immediate wake of Truss’s mini-Budget – suggesting that voters had simply concluded that Labour could not possibly do a worse job than the Tories.

However, despite Labour’s large poll lead, Sir Keir has been remarkably unsuccessful at impressing himself on voters. According to the latest Ipsos poll, he currently has a net satisfaction rating of -14. After enjoying a boost in the wake of Truss’s premiership, that rating has fallen quite noticeably during this year. Even among current Labour supporters, as many as 30 per cent are dissatisfied with Sir Keir’s performance. In contrast, a year out from the 1997 general election, Tony Blair’s rating was +19, while a year before the 2010 election, David Cameron stood at +16.

At the same time, it is far from clear that Labour have been particularly successful at reconnecting with working-class voters. At 48 per cent, support for the party among those in semi-skilled and unskilled jobs in Ipsos’ polls, is little different from the 46 per cent backing among those in professional and managerial jobs. The party’s boat has simply been lifted across the social spectrum.

A lack of clarity, question marks about competence, a relatively unpopular leader. Maybe none of this will matter, given the low regard in which the Conservatives are held. But should Mr Sunak prove able to turn his government around, Labour might suddenly find that their seemingly impregnable large lead is in fact rather fragile.

John Curtice is professor of politics, Strathclyde University, and senior research fellow, National Centre for Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. He is also co-host of the ‘Trendy’ podcast