EU referendum: Who is voting Leave, and who is for Remain?

Our Chief Political Commentator looks at the polling evidence on the characteristics of the two tribes into which the nation has sorted itself

Today’s vote is like that of 1975 in that the question has divided people across party lines (Reuters)

The nation divides, in almost equal proportions. When people complain that the referendum has been divisive, that is undoubtedly true, but it is also missing the point. Democracy is a way of resolving disagreement, but in order to do so, sometimes it has to force those who disagree to set out their arguments as forcefully as they can.

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And it is the nature of democracy that the hardest choices are the ones that divide people most nearly down the middle – otherwise there is no need to count the votes. The referendum of 1975 wasn’t as divisive as today’s, because in the end the people voted by an overwhelming margin of two to one.

On Friday, David Cameron is not going to be able to say what Harold Wilson said outside 10 Downing Street after the vote 41 years ago: “No one in Britain, in Europe or in the wider world should have any doubt as to its meaning. It means that 14 years of national argument are over. It means that all those who have had reservations about Britain’s commitment should now join wholeheartedly, without stint, in the task of overcoming the economic problems that assail us.”

But today’s vote is like that of 1975 in that the question has divided people across party lines. Then, it was the governing Labour Party that was most divided. Now it is the governing Conservatives. In both cases the division cut across the traditional class loyalties of British politics. Then, Empire loyalists joined forces with Labour leftwingers and trade unionists.

Today metropolitan liberals have allied with Scotland against small-town England. Stephen Bush in the New Statesman calls it the “new culture war”. David Cowling, the BBC’s head of Political Research, wrote in an internal memo of the “many millions of people in the UK who do not enthuse about diversity and do not embrace metropolitan values yet do not consider themselves lesser human beings for all that”. He said that their “discontents run very wide and very deep and the metropolitan political class, confronted by them, seems completely bewildered and at a loss about how to respond (‘who are these ghastly people and where do they come from?’ doesn’t really hack it)”.

So who are these people, who make up roughly half the nation? And who are the metropolitans who don’t understand them?

Age

Leavers tend to be older, Remainers younger. The crossover age is 43. Under 43, a majority are for Remain; above 43, most are for Leave. Forty-three-year-olds themselves split exactly 50-50, according to YouGov. Forty three years is, incidentally, the exact length of time that the UK has been a member of the EU.

The over-65s are the broad age group most likely to support Brexit, although there is some evidence that the very oldest, the over-75s, who would have some memory of the Second World War, are less hostile than their immediate juniors.

David Cameron must be bitterly regretting his resistance to giving the vote to 16- and 17-year-olds, who had the vote in Scotland two years ago.

Class

Or “socio-economic status” as academics euphemistically call it. The ABC1 social grades tend to be for Remain, while the C2DE groups are for Leave.

Education is correlated with class, and so it is no surprise that graduates are the most Remain, while those who left school at the earliest age are the most likely to support Leave.

Geography

London, Oxford, Cambridge, Brighton, Bristol, Cardiff, central Liverpool and Manchester, Northern Ireland and Scotland for Remain. The rest for Leave.

Sex

Women are more likely to say they don’t know. This is an ingrained feature of public opinion research. They are also slightly less likely than men to support Leave.

Culture

This is harder to quantify, and even harder to do so without falling into the trap against which Cowling warned his colleagues of patronising the inhabitants of provincial England. But there are a range of subjects, from opposing gay marriage and wind turbines to belief in conspiracy theories, that tend to be associated with Euroscepticism, and most strongly with its Ukip core.

A YouGov poll for LBC this week found that 28 per cent of people who intend to vote Leave think it is “probably true” that “MI5 is working with the UK government to try and stop Britain leaving the EU”. And nearly half, 46 per cent, say: “It is likely that the EU referendum will be rigged.”

Of course, there are many liberals, cosmopolitans and socialists who have reasoned arguments against EU membership, and who have little in common with Nigel Farage, but they are not typical.

The EU referendum debate has so far been characterised by bias, distortion and exaggeration. So until 23 June we we’re running a series of question and answer features that explain the most important issues in a detailed, dispassionate way to help inform your decision.

What is Brexit and why are we having an EU referendum?

Does the UK need to take more control of its sovereignty?

Could the UK media swing the EU referendum one way or another?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will we gain or lose rights by leaving the European Union?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

Will leaving the EU lead to the break-up of the UK?

What will happen to immigration if there's Brexit?

Will Brexit make the UK more or less safe?

Will the UK benefit from being released from EU laws?

Will leaving the EU save taxpayers money and mean more money for the NHS?

What will Brexit mean for British tourists booking holidays in the EU?

Will Brexit help or damage the environment?

Will Brexit mean that Europeans have to leave the UK?

What will Brexit mean for British expats in Europe?