By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire
Labour could be on course for an even bigger landslide than the one seen under Tony Blair under 1997, polling guru says
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Your support makes all the difference.Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself the heir to Blair after a historic Tory by-election drubbing in which he jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.
The Labour leader said that Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.
The Tories are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities evaporating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.
Starmers remarks came as polling guru John Curtice said Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were largely to blame for the crushing defeat.
Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Labour took Mid Bedfordshire from the Tories for the first time.
While in Tamworth, the party saw the second biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in a by-election in post-war history.
Meanwhile, former chancellor George Osborne warned the record defeats spell “armageddon” for the Conservatives at the general election.
“We finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side”, Labour MP says
Winning Labour candidate for Mid Bedfordshire Alistair Strathern said the by-election had been a chance to make sure “we finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side”.
Thanking campaigners gathered at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “I’ve been really humbled by how seriously people have taken this election, this opportunity to do something differently, this chance to make sure we finally have an MP in Parliament who is going to be on our side.”
Conservatives’ by-election scorecard since the 2019 general election
The Conservatives have now lost eight by-elections since the 2019 general election, as well as making one gain and holding three seats.
Their first by-election took place in Hartlepool in May 2021 and amounted to their first - and only - gain since they came into government.
In June 2021, they lost the seat of Chesham & Amersham to the Liberal Democrats and ended the year by holding the Old Bexley & Sidcup and losing the seat of North Shropshire to the Liberal Democrats once again in December 2021
In February 2022 the Tories held the seat of Southend West by-election which was triggered by the murder of MP David Amess.
Later that year, the Conservatives suffered two by-election losses on the same day in June 2022: the first time since 1991 that a government had endured two concurrent defeats. Labour took Wakefield in West Yorkshire on a swing of 12.7 percentage points while the Liberal Democrats won the Devon seat of Tiverton & Honiton.
One month later, the Conservatives took another blow in two other by-elections. The Selby & Ainsty by-election in North Yorkshire was one of three to take place on the same day in July 2023 and saw Labour win the seat from the Tories.
The Liberal Democrats clocked up another win in the Somerset seat of Somerton & Frome, taking it from the Conservatives on a swing of 29.0 points.
The third by-election to take place on the same day in July this year saw the Conservatives hold the outer London seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip, in a contest triggered by the resignation of its MP and former prime minister Boris Johnson.
This brings us to yesterday’s by-elections, which saw yet another double-bill of defeats for the Conservatives. They lost Mid Bedfordshire on a swing to Labour of 20.5 percentage points and Tamworth on a swing of 23.9 points.
Tory candidate walks out after losing by-election
The Tory candidate for the Tamworth by-lection walked out of the counting hall after winning candidate Sarah Edwards began her victory speech.
Andrew Cooper, who this week faced criticism over an old explicit food bank post telling struggling parents to “f*** off”, appeared to be quite a sore loser indeed as he left the room by going out the fire escape when Labour’s Edwards started speaking.
You can watch his hasty exit here:
Labour “made history”
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party’s winning candidate for Mid Bedfordshire had “not only won” but “made history”.
Appearing alongside Alistair Strathern at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “What a fantastic candidate… He has not only won here, he’s made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already.”
Thanking Labour campaigners, he said: “Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.
“This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.
“It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory Government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.”
What the by-election double whammy means for Rishi Sunak
In the space of 30 minutes in the early hours of Friday morning the Conservatives lost Tamworth – which it held with a majority of 19,634 in 2019 – and then Mid Bedfordshire, where there had been a massive 24,664 vote cushion.
The Tories expected a difficult night, in part because governing parties often suffer a by-election backlash but also because of the controversies that led to the two vacancies.
But the defeats cannot be shrugged off, especially not with a general election next year. Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.
Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.
The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Mr Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture.
He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country. With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.
But the state of the public finances could restrict Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election.
And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.
Sir Keir Strarmer: “Voters have turned their back on a failed Tory government"
Sir Keir Starmer spoke in Mid Bedfordshire following Labour’s double by-election win there and in Tamworth.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.
Making a short speech about the “incredible” by-election Starmer said: “It is clear the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory government.”
He added that the result showed voters are “crying out for change”.
Recap: Labour win two key by-elections
Sir Keir Starmer claimed Labour was “redrawing the political map” by overturning huge Tory majorities in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire and dealing a double by-election blow to Rishi Sunak.
In Tamworth, Labour’s Sarah Edwards overcome a 19,000 majority and defeated Conservative rival Andrew Cooper by a majority of 1,316.
The result in the “red wall” Midlands seat saw a mammoth 23.9 per cent swing from the Tories to Labour. Polling guru Prof John Curtice said “no government has lost a seat as safe as Tamworth”.
In Mid-Bedfordshire, Alistair Strathern overcame a 24,000 majority by taking the seat by 1,192 votes over his Tory rival Festus Akinbusoye – a swing of 20.5 percentage points to Labour.
The result in Nadine Dorries’ old seat was the single largest majority overturned by Labour at a by-election since 1945.
Voters are ‘happy’ with Rishi Sunak, claims Tory chair – who insists he is staying on
Greg Hands said he believes people are “happy with the job Rishi Sunak is doing as prime minister” despite the Tories’ two humiliating by-election defeats overnight.
He said that “legacy issues” that “predate” Sunak’s time at No 10 have caused the two by-elections.
Hands also argued that there was “a lot of fury” among voters about the background to the two by-elections – the exit of Nadine Dorries and Chris Pincher.
Asked whether he was considering his position, Mr Hands told Sky News said: “No, I’m going to be looking at the dynamics and the operation of those by-elections but I think we had a very good campaign, we had good candidates, we just need to find a way of incentivising Conservatives to turn up to vote next year at the general election.”
Tory MP demands ‘far-reaching changes’
The Tories need to make “far-reaching major changes now” in the wake of the party’s two crushing by-election losses, one of its right-wing MPs has warned.
Former minister Andrea Jenkyns – a big Boris Johnson supporter – wrote on social media: “Voter apathy is evident yet again in both the by-elections, low turnout … We need to make far reaching major changes now to instil confidence in the Conservative voters.”
Still no enthusiasm for Labour, claims Tory chairman
Conservative Party chairman Greg Hands said he does not “see any enthusiasm for Labour” despite the party’s victories, adding that turnout had been low.
He said he had campaigned in both seats, telling Times Radio: “I don’t think a single person came to the door to say that despite all the problems people are facing, that Labour and Sir Keir Starmer were the solution to their problems.
“So I don’t see any enthusiasm for Labour … But clearly we need to reflect on that and we need to continue to deliver against our priorities and make sure that people see that Rishi Sunak is doing a very good job as prime minister.”
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