Budget 2024 – latest: Inflation falls to lowest rate in three years, Reeves ‘eyes £40bn’ in cuts and spending

Value of pound has fallen after this morning’s announcement

Starmer refuses to rule out national insurance rise at PMQs

Rachel Reeves will announce Labour’s first Budget in 15 years later this month, leading one of the most highly-anticipated fiscal events in over a decade.

As the chancellor looks to fill the £22bn “black hole” in public spending she announced in late July, speculation has mounted about what measures will be included on 30 October.

During Labour’s first few months in power, ministers have warned that “tough decisions” will be required to balance the books. Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the event is going to be “painful” but that there is “no other choice given the situation that we’re in”.

This likely means tax rises and spending cuts can be expected. The government has already come under fire for its decision to cut back winter fuel payments for millions of pensions, sparking a row which has hung over its first 100 days in power.

In the run-up to the Budget, inflation fell below the 2 per cent target for the first time in three years, sparking hopes of an interest rate cut to come in November.

We’ll be bringing you all the latest updates ahead of the big event on 30 October here, on The Independent’s liveblog.

Key points

• Inflation falls below 2% target for first time in three years
• Budget 2024: Proposed national insurance hike sparks row
• Preview: What will be in Labour’s Budget?
• Ex-Bank of England chief urges Reeves to raise national insurance

[16 October 2024 08:02 · Albert Toth]

Pinned: Inflation falls below 2% target for first time in three years

UK inflation has decreased to below the 2 per cent target for the first time in over three years.

The consumer price index (CPI) has dropped to 1.7 per cent, down from 2.2. per cent in August, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The figure has beaten expert predictions, which largely estimated a more modest drop to 1.9 per cent.

[17 October 2024 03:00 · Albert Toth]

Budget rumours: business rates reform

In its election manifesto, Labour said it was committed to reforming the current business rates system “so we can raise the same revenue but in a fairer way”.

What this means has not been spelt out by the party, but it said the new system will be designed to “level the playing field between the high street and online giants, better incentivise investment, tackle empty properties and support entrepreneurship”.

It’s thought this could take the form of an immediate cut to the rates, while also closing loopholes which allow some firms to avoid tax. This will come as welcome news to smaller business owners, but Labour will be careful to ensure their reform maintains a monetary net zero.

Exchequer secretary James Murray MP confirmed this at a Labour conference fringe event hosted by the British Retail Consortium, saying: “It’s within the current envelope. It’s all about raising the same amount of money overall, that’s the commitment.”

[17 October 2024 00:01 · Albert Toth]

ICYMI: Inflation drop ‘badly-timed’ for benefit claimants as next increase revealed

Inflation has dropped below 2 per cent for the first time in over three years, raising hopes that the Bank will cut interest rates in November. The decrease exceeded many economist predictions, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 1.7 per cent

But some experts have warned that the rate drop is “badly timed” for many people, as it will be a key factor in how much benefits are uprated by the DWP next April.

[16 October 2024 21:00 · Albert Toth]

Budget rumours: fuel Duty increase

Fuel duties, or taxes, apply to purchases of petrol, diesel and a variety of other fuels used both for vehicles and domestic heating.

The level of fuel duty depends on the type of fuel used, with a litre of petrol, diesel, biodiesel and bioethanol attracting a fuel duty of 52.95p. It was cut by 5p by the Conservatives in 2022, after being frozen at 57.95p since 2011.

It represents a significant source of revenue for the government, expected to raise £24.7 billion in 2023-24, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility – equivalent to 2.2 per cent of all receipts.

Scrapping the 5p cut would raise the government an estimated £2bn. However, doing so would not automatically force fuel retailers to bring down their costs, likely meaning higher fees for motorists, at least in the short term.

[16 October 2024 20:00 · Albert Toth]

ICYMI: Rachel Reeves boosted by big drop in inflation as she seeks £40bn in Budget tax rises

Rachel Reeves has been boosted by a sharp drop in inflation as she seeks to find £40bn of tax hikes and spending cuts in this month’s Budget.

The chancellor will welcome the dip, which saw inflation fall under the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target for the first time in more than three years, as she prepares for what promises to be a brutal Budget.

[16 October 2024 18:00 · Albert Toth]

Budget rumours: welfare spending cuts

Labour has made no secret of its ambition to reduce the government’s welfare spending bill, so Ms Reeves will likely take the Budget as her opportunity to do so.

Speaking at Labour’s party conference, the prime minister said: “We will get the welfare bill down because we will tackle long-term sickness and support people back to work.”

What has been confirmed is a crackdown on benefit fraud, which looks to save £1.6bn over the next five years. Also possible is the mooted reform to disability benefits through personal independence payments (PIP) or the work capability assessment (WCA).

[16 October 2024 17:00 · Albert Toth]

What would you like to see announced in Rachel Reeves’ budget?

We would like to hear your thoughts on what you would like to see introduced in Reeves’ Budget. Should she focus on measures to support homeowners, such as the Freedom to Buy scheme? Or would you prefer a focus on closing tax loopholes, such as abolishing non-dom status, to ensure a fairer tax system?

[16 October 2024 15:33 · Albert Toth]

Inflation drop ‘badly-timed’ for benefit claimants as next increase revealed

Inflation has dropped below 2 per cent for the first time in over three years, raising hopes that the Bank will cut interest rates in November. The decrease exceeded many economist predictions, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) falling to 1.7 per cent

But some experts have warned that the rate drop is “badly timed” for many people, as it will be a key factor in how much benefits are uprated by the DWP next April.

[16 October 2024 13:14 · Albert Toth]

ICYMI: Ex-Bank of England chief urges Rachel Reeves to raise national insurance

In an open letter published in The Independent, Mervyn King warns the chancellor against higher borrowing

“Be courageous, be bold, and ensure that the economic inheritance we leave to our grandchildren is one of which both they and we can be proud.

“One day, you will look back on your time as chancellor and you will want to remember the far-reaching changes you made – not the political compromises that others will urge on you.”

[16 October 2024 11:53 · Albert Toth]

Controversial weight-loss jab policy revealed ahead of Budget

Ahead of the Budget on 30 October, it has been revealed that a trial is underway where unemployed people will be given weight-loss jabs to assist them back into work.

The UK’s life sciences sector will receive £279 million from drugs giant Eli Lilly, to invest in developing new medicines and ways to deliver treatment.

“The long-term benefits of these drugs could be monumental in our approach to tackling obesity. For many people, these jabs will be life-changing, help them get back to work and ease the demands on our NHS,” health secretary Wes Streeting wrote in The Telegraph.