UK heatwave: Emergency planning in government amid fears temperatures could hit 40C

Chances of Sunday being hottest day on record are almost one in three, Met Office says

Britain could see its first ever national heatwave emergency this weekend as forecasters warn of dangerously high temperatures in the coming days.

The Met Office predicts the mercury will exceed 35C and could even reach 40C on Sunday. There is around a 30 per cent chance that the current heat record – of 38.7C set in Cambridge in 2019 – could be broken.

As parts of southeast England sweltered at 31C on Tuesday, the Met Office issued an updated “amber” extreme heat warning covering 17 and 18 July for much of England and Wales.

Exceptionally high temperatures are expected to peak on Monday and the hot spell could last into next Tuesday.

According to the official Heatwave Plan for England, the decision on whether to declare an emergency would be taken coordinated by the Cabinet Office.

Southern areas of England have already been placed on the second-highest level of alert this week by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), a measure which requires health and social services to take action to protect vulnerable people.

The Royal Life Saving Society (RLSS UK) warned of the dangers of trying to cool off in lakes, quarries, rivers and other waterways in the extremely hot weather as West Yorkshire Police said a 16-year-old boy, Alfie McCraw, from Wakefield, had died after getting into difficulties while swimming in the Aire and Calder Navigation.

On the roads, the RAC recorded a 10 per cent increase in breakdowns on Monday compared with a typical Monday in mid-July, with hundreds of vehicles across the UK not able to function properly due to the heat.

Network Rail is preparing to introduce speed restrictions to reduce the likelihood of tracks buckling as the heatwave continues, which will cause delays to passenger journeys and disrupt freight services.

Although hosepipe bans are not currently on the cards, Thames Water and Yorkshire Water are among those warning their reservoirs and other resources are lower than normal.

The UKHSA’s head of extreme events and health protection, Dr Agostinho Sousa, said: “Heat-health alerts have now been issued to the majority of the country, with temperatures set to remain consistently high throughout the duration of this week.

“Most of us can enjoy the hot weather when it arrives, but it is important to keep yourself hydrated and to find shade where possible when UV rays are strongest, between 11am and 3pm. If you have vulnerable family, friends and neighbours, make sure they are aware of how they can keep themselves protected from the warm weather.”

Heatwaves are the deadliest extreme weather event in the UK, and according to the Met Office there an average of 2,000 heat-related deaths each year.

But scientists have warned that such events will only become more frequent and severe as a result of climate breakdown, and earlier this year the Met Office raised the threshold for weather to be considered a heatwave in parts of the UK to reflect the country’s warming climate.

The highest temperature ever recorded in the UK was 38.7C, reached at Cambridge Botanic Garden in July 2019.

Met Office deputy chief meteorologist forecaster Rebekah Sherwin said: “Weather forecast models are run hundreds of times to determine the most likely weather outcome. For late next weekend and early next week, some runs of these models are allowing exceptionally high temperatures to develop, which is something we’ll be monitoring closely and adding details in the coming days.

“Some models have been producing maximum temperatures in excess of 40C in parts of the UK over the coming weekend and beyond. At longer time scales temperature forecasts become less reliable, so whilst these figures can’t be ruled out, they are still only a low probability.”

Weather extreme enough to trigger a national emergency has the possibility to cause illness and death among the fit and healthy, and not just in high-risk groups, government guidance states.

Disruption to road and rail travel, issues at power stations, higher concentrations of air pollutants, classroom closures and crop failures are among the other risks anticipated during a heatwave severe enough to merit a national emergency, according to the government’s official heatwave plan.