Coronavirus news – live: Christmas ‘may lead to third wave’ but life ‘could start to normalise by spring’
Follow all the latest updates and statistics
Sign up for our free Health Check email to receive exclusive analysis on the week in health
Get our free Health Check email
Experts are warning the planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic, after the UK’s four nations agreed three households would be allowed to mix in a bubble for five days over the festive period.
Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), told BBC’s Newsnight “it will definitely lead to increased transmission”, adding: “It is likely to lead to a third wave of infection, with hospitals being overrun, and more unnecessary deaths.”
He also described the bringing together of families with elderly relatives “for hours, let alone days” as “a recipe for regret for many families”.
And as the UK recorded its highest number of total daily deaths since the start of May, the British Medical Association (BMA) also warned that the Christmas period will “almost certainly” lead to a rise in the infection rate.
Meanwhile, England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty has said that “many of us hope that things will begin to normalise” by spring 2021, but cautioned that this will be a “steady” rather than immediate return to normality.
Good morning and welcome to The Independent’s live coverage of the coronavirus pandemic. Stay tuned for rolling updates and statistics.
Christmas bubbles ‘could lead to third wave’
A member of the government's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned the planned relaxation of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas could lead to a third wave of the pandemic.
Professor Andrew Hayward told BBC's Newsnight: "Effectively what this will be doing is throwing fuel on the Covid fire. I think it will definitely lead to increased transmission. It is likely to lead to a third wave of infection, with hospitals being overrun, and more unnecessary deaths.
"We are still in a country where we have got high levels of infection with Covid, particularly in young people. Bringing them together for hours, let alone days, with elderly relatives, I think, is a recipe for regret for many families.
"With the vaccine on the way, if we are not very careful over Christmas we are really in danger of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory on this one."
It comes as the British Medical Association (BMA) also warned easing of coronavirus restrictions over Christmas will "almost certainly" lead to a rise in the infection rate, as three households will be able to form a bubble over the festive period.
Christmas bubble plans branded ‘mockery’ of pub restrictions
Plans to relax rules on household mixing over the Christmas period have been branded a "mockery" of restrictions that will remain in place for pubs and the wider hospitality sector.
According to government guidance, people cannot meet up with their Christmas bubbles of up to three households inside pubs, hotels, retail, theatres or restaurants between 23 and 27 December.
This is despite those within Christmas bubbles being able to visit each other's homes and stay overnight during that period.
Rules covering meeting inside hospitality settings will depend on what tier of restrictions in England a venue is in.
Emma McClarkin, chief executive of the British Beer and Pub Association, said: "These plans for Christmas make a mockery of the extra restrictions being placed on pubs and the economic devastation they are facing this Christmas.
“How can it be that pubs cannot properly open while households can mix in private settings?”
Business travellers to England could be exempt from quarantine
People travelling to England for short business trips could be exempt from quarantine measures by early 2021, according to reports.
A policy whereby business travellers visiting for up to three days from countries deemed higher-risk will be able to forego self-isolation is believed to have been included in a report by the Global Travel Taskforce – but they would be banned from socialising.
Andy Gregory has more details:
Business travellers to England could be exempt from quarantine under government plans, reports suggest
So-called ‘tour bubbles’ for groups of tourists from higher-risk countries also reportedly under consideration
Boris Johnson outlines UK Christmas agreement
Prime minister Boris Johnson sets out the agreed relaxation of coronavirus rules over Christmas
Risk of filling up NHS ‘is being passed down to us as individuals’
Professor Graham Medley, an expert in infectious disease modelling at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said the relaxation of coronavirus restrictions at Christmas could lead to more people being admitted to hospital and further lockdown measures in the New Year.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) attendee told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "I think we're in a process now whereby the population's risk of filling up the NHS is really being passed down to us as individuals.
"For other diseases like flu or hepatitis B, the government doesn't get involved in helping or determining what our risk is and it is really, I think, for this Christmas up to us as individuals and families to think about what our risks are and how we are going to mitigate them.
"I think it is inevitable that if a lot of people do take that risk, even if it is a small risk, then we will end up with a lot of people in hospital and potentially having to take measures in January to lock down again."
Christmas meet-ups ‘could play out very badly for some’
Prof Medley advised people to isolate before visiting relatives over Christmas, to consider the amount of time they plan to spend with them, to remain "completely faithful" to any social bubble arrangements and to weigh up the risk of spreading Covid to those who are vulnerable.
But he said, even with mitigations in place, social interactions come with risks that "could play out very badly for some people".
Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham urged the chancellor to offer help to the estimated three million people excluded from his previous coronavirus support schemes.
He tweeted: "It's no exaggeration to say jobs, homes, marriages and lives depend on what he's got to say. Please, RishiSunak, listen to their cries for help and do the right thing."
Christmas bubble plan is ‘throwing fuel on Covid fire’
A government scientific adviser has warned relaxing coronavirus restrictions over the festive period could lead to a third wave of infections.
Professor Andrew Hayward, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), said the government’s plan to allow three households to meet over several days during Christmas is “throwing fuel on the Covid fire”.
Kate Ng reports:
Christmas relaxing of rules may lead to third coronavirus wave, Sage adviser warns
Allowing families to mix over several days ‘recipe for regret for many families’
Continue to be ‘cautious and careful’ over Christmas, says Welsh first minister
Welsh first minister Mark Drakeford said people have to approach Christmas "in a way that continues to be cautious and careful" and consider the risks posed to themselves and others.
He told BBC Breakfast: "Provided people are willing to use the five days in that way then we will have been able to offer a relaxation that doesn't lead to an exponential rise in risk.
"I know there will be many families in Wales who will choose not to use any of these freedoms because they will think that this is not the year to put themselves and others at risk.
"But for people who do want to meet others at Christmas, please think carefully, use it responsibly, and then we will, all of us, not face consequences in the New Year that could overwhelm our NHS and lead to real consequences in the lives of people who matter the most to you."
Subscribe to Independent Premium to bookmark this article
Want to bookmark your favourite articles and stories to read or reference later? Start your Independent Premium subscription today.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies