Down but definitely not out: Brazil’s Bolsonaro makes gains in polls ahead of presidential vote-off
Support for left-wing candidate Lula drops as campaign hits the last stretch
Rumours of Jair Bolsonaro’s political demise may have been greatly exaggerated.
The latest opinion polls show he is now just five percentage points behind front-runner Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before the Brazilian presidential runoff vote at the end of this month.
A poll by Genial/Quaest showed that former president Lula has 47 per cent voter support, down from last week’s 49 per cent, while Bolsonaro gained 1 point to move to 42 per cent.
If it is true – and there has been huge controversy about the accuracy of the polls during the current election – it shows a big turnaround for the controversial populist Bolsonaro.
Lula was widely predicted to win the first round of voting at the beginning of this month, with some polls even predicting he would gain more than 50 per cent of votes, the benchmark needed to ensure there would be a second round of voting.
But they proved to be wide of the mark – just as Bolsonaro had claimed in the run-up to voting.
Instead, Lula polled at just over 48 per cent with Bolsonaro, who was widely predicted to be more than 15 points behind, gaining over 43 per cent.
The subsequent result led to an immediate backlash, largely from Mr Bolsonaro himself, against polling companies.
The president’s justice ministry called for a federal police investigation, and a regulator has already started work into whether pollsters formed a cartel to manipulate election results. Allies of Mr Bolsonaro in Congress are also pushing separate initiatives, one of which would establish prison sentences for pollsters failing to accurately predict results.
Bolsonaro had threatened not to recognise the result if he lost in the first round, a claim which led to predictions of potential widespread violence after the vote.
That has not materialised, yet, but tensions in Brazil remain high.
In a televised debate this week, the two rivals clashed, with both repeatedly calling the other a liar during the 90-minute debate.
“You are a liar. You lie every day,” Mr da Silva, known commonly as “Lula” said to Mr Bolsonaro during one tense exchange.
Mr Bolsonaro responded: “You can’t come here to tell people these lies.”
Bolsonaro – a retired military officer – has been criticised for his handling of the Covid pandemic, worsening poverty, and the most intense deforestation of the Amazon rainforest in 15 years.
His campaign has attempted to focus Brazil’s poor communities on welfare payments his government had made during and after the pandemic. But critics claim he has implemented them solely to boost his ratings.
“People say Bolsonaro is helping. But he gives and then takes it away. It was much better with Lula,” said Luciana Messias dos Santos, 29. In her wooden shack in Estrutural, Brasilia’s largest favela, she had to adapt her stove to cook with wood as fuel because gas is too expensive.
Bolsonaro has denied hunger has become critical in Brazil, irritated by the importance it has taken on in the election campaign.
“Hunger in Brazil? It does not exist the way it is being reported,” he said in August.
Earlier this month, his economy minister, Paulo Guedes, took on a survey by the Penssan Network that said 33 million people face starvation. “It’s a lie. That is false. These are not the numbers,” he said.
The survey by pollster Genial/Quaest interviewed 2,000 people between 16 and 18 October and has a margin of error of two percentage points.
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