What happens to Europe if Russia cuts off the gas?

Germany is such a huge gas importer – the largest in the world – that its response matters most of all, writes Hamish McRae

Last week, Robert Habeck, the German economic minister, announced that the country would move to stage two of its three-stage emergency plan (AFP via Getty Images)

Forget the matey scenes of the G7 leaders at the summit in Bavaria, and ask the tough question – what happens if Russia cuts off gas to Europe? If we have learnt anything in the past four months, it is that Europe has to plan for the most extreme outcomes that might stem from the invasion of Ukraine. And among those extreme outcomes is a total shut-off of gas supplies.

This is really an issue for the coming winter. The normal pattern is for stocks to build up in the summer and then be run down when cold weather strikes. Taking Europe as a whole, roughly 40 per cent of its gas was imported in 2020 from Russia, with some countries such as Latvia getting all of it from Russia, while others such as Ireland not importing any. (The UK produces roughly half its gas from the North Sea and imports 7 per cent from Russia.)

Germany took 65 per cent of its gas from Russia, and though it has cut imports down, it is such a huge gas importer – the largest in the world – that its response matters most of all.