How Liz Truss can stop the Brexit wars

The new Brexit minister might prove more pragmatic and flexible than Lord Frost, writes Andrew Grice

Foreign secretary Liz Truss has taken on the Brexit file from Lord Frost (PA Wire)

David Frost strongly denies that his resignation as minister for Europe was about Brexit, citing “coercive” coronavirus restrictions and the government’s “direction of travel” on the economy. But his timing was instructive: he got out with his reputation intact (on the Tory right, at least) before having to make concessions on the Northern Ireland protocol – or, alternatively, trigger its Article 16 provisions, risking a trade war with the EU.

Briefings from senior Whitehall officials to London-based European journalists had raised the white flag on Frost’s demand that the European Court of Justice should play no role in resolving disputes over the protocol. Frost also knew that Johnson’s previous appetite for a confrontation with Brussels had waned; his domestic woes over the past two months would have made war with the EU look like a desperate distraction.

Frost’s timing was devastating. Johnson tried to stall his resignation. Frost agreed to wait until January, but then jumped last weekend when his decision leaked out. For a prime minister with few genuinely close allies, senior Tories judged that losing his Brexit soulmate would hurt Johnson more than defeat in the North Shropshire by-election.

Now the EU hot potato passes to Liz Truss, the foreign secretary. Which way will she jump on the protocol, which will be at the top of her agenda when negotiations resume in the new year? Her statement after a phone call with Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission vice-president, was read both ways by those looking for a hard line or a softer stance respectively.

She wanted “a constructive relationship with the EU” and pointed out that resolving current issues “is critical to unleashing that potential”. But she insisted the UK position had not changed, reiterating Frost’s threat to invoke Article 16 to suspend all or part of the protocol. There was a hint of wiggle room on the ECJ: Truss said it could not be the “final arbiter” of disputes, but that it could be allowed a role on points of EU law.

On the face of it, the ambitious foreign secretary will want to curry favour with Tory Eurosceptics to win their votes in a future leadership election. That would point to maintaining Frost’s bellicose approach. Truss is quite capable of playing hardball, and won’t want to look like a soft touch at the outset, which would weaken her negotiating clout. She styles herself as Margaret Thatcher Mk II – grassroots Tory members love it, though it grates on some MPs – and is well aware that Thatcher said “No, no, no” to the EU.

Yet in practice, Truss might prove more pragmatic and flexible than Frost. Hardline Brexiteers, who share Truss’s libertarian outlook, would have nowhere else to go in a Tory leadership run-off between her and Rishi Sunak. (Priti Patel might run to Truss’s right, but is unlikely to make the cut when Tory MPs whittle the runners down to the final two for a ballot of party members.) Truss is a doer, and resolving the protocol issue would be an achievement.

Frost’s departure was an unexpected Christmas pressie for Brussels. One source told me: “There is a sense of optimism about the change of personnel. We think she will want a deal rather than prolonged negotiations.” 

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A better working relationship with the EU would help with the foreign secretary’s “big picture” priorities of standing up to Russia and China. Foreign Office officials, previously cut out of the Brexit process, will sense an opportunity to improve relations with European capitals to further the UK’s wider goals. Truss is liked by Baltic and Nordic countries for her tough stance on Belarus and Vladimir Putin – something to build on. The EU, which wants the protocol issue resolved, might even offer a few concessions she could sell at home, not least to the Eurosceptics.

Some hardliners don’t trust her because she backed Remain in the 2016 referendum (probably because she thought it would win and that David Cameron would remain prime minister). She has since displayed the zeal of the convert, regretting she did not realise the freedoms Brexit would bring, and becoming the loudest champion of Johnson’s “global Britain”.

The Brexiteers have been largely reassured by the appointment of Chris Heaton-Harris as minister of state for Europe; he will be “hands on” given Truss’s bulging portfolio. Every foreign secretary is abroad a lot; Truss is also minister for women and equalities. She will need all of the vast reserves of energy for which she is famous.

While Johnson remains prime minister, I doubt the UK will enjoy the sensible grown-up relationship with the EU that will one day work to mutual benefit. But as Truss succeeds Frost, there is a chance that the government will finally stop fighting the last war on Brexit.